Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Keita's UFC statistical profile is a one-fight sample (split-decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in his debut), so his numbers must be treated as near-null - but his 16-2 overall record built as a two-division OKTAGON champion is meaningful pedigree, and the Wood loss was razor-thin against a legitimate top-20 featherweight. Naimov's profile is the more readable one and it is troubling: 44% striking defense (worst-in-class for a fighter absorbing 3.35/min), a 3rd-round KO loss to Mairon Santos in his last outing, and a 266-day layoff. Naimov's two most recent wins were grinding decisions over Bogdan Grad and Kaan Ofli - low-tier opposition - and his path to victory here is his 1.49 TD/fight wrestling, but he only converts at 30% accuracy. Keita is the harder hitter and the fresher athlete (27 vs 32), and Naimov has now been finished in two of his four UFC losses. The stylistic read is Keita landing the cleaner, heavier shots at range against a defensively porous opponent whose durability is trending down. Confidence is capped by Keita's minimal UFC data and his own coin-flip debut.

Keita is the faster and more dangerous striker, with advantages in output, accuracy, and striking defense. Naimov's wrestling is his clearest route to success, but his 30% takedown accuracy may struggle against Keita's reported 100% takedown defense. Naimov also absorbs more than he lands and owns only 44% striking defense, creating openings for Keita's explosive combinations as the fight progresses.