No market line was provided, so this leans on Elo (52-48 Sygula) and trajectory. The common-opponent signal actually favors Cornolle, she KO'd Melissa Mullins with a knee, while Sygula was TKO'd by Mullins in her debut, but that Sygula loss is nearly two years old and she has clearly rebuilt since, grinding out decisions over Alekseeva and Cachoeira with enormous volume (7.27 SLPM, +1.77 differential). Cornolle is trending the wrong way: two straight losses, submitted by Joselyne Edwards last time out, an opponent she'd already beaten in 2023, and she turns 37 before this fight. Cornolle's 2.73 SLPM output is less than half of Sygula's, and while her 55% accuracy is sharp, she historically fades when opponents push pace (Rosa, Cavalcanti both outworked her). Sygula's suspect 40% takedown defense is largely irrelevant because Cornolle attempts only 0.22 takedowns per fight at 11% accuracy. The nine-year age gap, volume edge, and momentum point to Sygula outworking the Frenchwoman round by round, though the Paris crowd and small two-fight UFC sample for Sygula cap conviction. Sygula's durability question (the Mullins KO) is the live risk against Cornolle's counter-knee power.

Sygula's substantially higher striking output and stronger positive strike differential give her the clearer path to winning rounds in a matchup likely to remain primarily on the feet. Cornolle is more accurate and may be dangerous in the clinch, but her low volume and 47% takedown defense could allow Sygula to dictate activity and positioning. Sygula's defensive liabilities and limited UFC sample keep confidence moderate.