Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The market prices Lima at -200 (63% de-vigged) while opponent-adjusted Elo has this a virtual coin flip (51/49). That tension matters. Lima is the more well-rounded fighter: his 64% striking defense (vs Charriere's 53%), 85% takedown defense, and submission threat (0.7 SubAvg, RNC finish of Naimov) give him multiple paths, and his only UFC loss came up a division against surging Payton Talbott at bantamweight. Charriere is the more dangerous single-shot hitter (KO wins over Landwehr and Miranda) but he absorbs 4.51 SApM against just 4.02 landed - a negative striking differential - and was just violently finished by a Melquizael Costa head kick in December 2025, raising durability questions. Two real caveats keep confidence modest: Lima's 428-day layoff is close to the material-risk threshold, and Charriere fights in front of a Paris home crowd where he has historically raised his output. Lima's low-volume, defensively sound, grinding style (two of three UFC wins by decision) points to a fight that goes the distance, with Lima winning the grappling exchanges and cleaner counters over 15 minutes. Charriere's live early KO threat is exactly why this shouldn't be priced higher than the low-60s.

Lima's superior striking defense, lower absorption rate, and slightly stronger takedown defense should help him neutralize Charriere's higher output and more accurate takedowns. Charriere can win minutes through pressure and volume, particularly with the Paris crowd behind him, but his negative striking differential creates openings for Lima to land cleaner counters and mix in opportunistic grappling across three competitive rounds.