Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Benouaich (7-2) gets the French homecoming in Paris against Montenegro (6-2), whose only trackable data point is a split-decision loss to Jeisla Chaves on DWCS in September 2025 followed by a 341-day layoff. That Contender Series tape is instructive: Montenegro landed 4.27 significant strikes per minute but absorbed 5.67 - a negative striking differential (-1.4) with just 48% defense against a single opponent, suggesting she is hittable and willing to trade at a deficit. Her 100% takedown defense in that fight is a one-bout sample and shouldn't be overweighted. Benouaich is a full UFC debutant with no octagon data, but the market installs her at -162 (58%) with a moderate 16-point spread, and she has the crowd, the shorter travel, and a cleaner path into the bout - she isn't coming off a loss and a near-year layoff. For Montenegro, losing her DWCS audition and then sitting nearly a year raises questions about activity and camp continuity. I take the market favorite: Benouaich by decision in a competitive strawweight scrap where Montenegro's porous defense concedes rounds.

Montenegro is the more supportable pick because she has demonstrated measurable UFC-level output, strong recorded takedown defense, and some offensive wrestling. Her negative striking differential and 48% striking defense make this a low-confidence selection, while the absence of usable data for Benouaich creates substantial uncertainty. Montenegro is most likely to win a competitive fight through activity and defensive grappling over three rounds.