Elo calls this 50/50 while the market has Donchenko at 65%, but the Elo figure is provisional off only 2 rated UFC fights and lags a fast-rising 25-year-old prospect, his +46 trend, first-round KO of Sezinando, a clean decision over durable veteran Alex Morono, and a June 2026 KO of Berggren (three wins in under 10 months, only 64 days off) all suggest the true number sits closer to the market than the rating. Soriano deserves respect: a 4-fight win streak and heavy left hand from the southpaw stance that flatlined Uros Medic in one round. But his profile has clear cracks, 48% striking defense, an alarming 37% takedown defense, and his losses have come when opponents extend him into later rounds or take him down (submitted by Stoltzfus). At 34 against a 25-year-old with a 15-2 record, faster recent activity, and finishing power, Soriano's path is landing the left hand early. If Donchenko survives the opening five minutes, and Morono couldn't crack him, his youth, pace, and the option to exploit Soriano's porous takedown defense should compound. Small sample on Donchenko caps confidence in the low-60s, but the side is correct.

Donchenko is the less statistically documented fighter, but his cleaner, more mobile orthodox striking can exploit Soriano's 48% significant-strike defense and tendency to slow when forced into extended exchanges. Soriano carries the greater proven power, lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy, and can mix in takedowns, but his 37% takedown defense and defensive striking gaps make him vulnerable if Donchenko maintains pace and distance. The uncertainty created by Donchenko's missing UFC data keeps confidence moderate.