Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr.

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.

FINAL: Khalil Rountree Jr. by U-DEC
Jamahal Hill
Jamahal Hill
Age 34 · Elo 1562
LLWWW
153 days since last fight
vs
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Age 35 · Elo 1553
LWWWW
434 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Jamahal HillKhalil Rountree Jr.
Claude Claude: Jamahal Hill 65% Claude: Khalil Rountree Jr. 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Jamahal Hill 70% GPT: Khalil Rountree Jr. 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Jamahal Hill 51% Elo: Khalil Rountree Jr. 49% 51% 49%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jamahal HillKhalil Rountree Jr.
Strikes landed / min Jamahal Hill Strikes landed / min: 7.18 7.18 Khalil Rountree Jr. Strikes landed / min: 3.73 3.73 Strikes absorbed / min Jamahal Hill Strikes absorbed / min: 3.51 3.51 Khalil Rountree Jr. Strikes absorbed / min: 4.51 4.51 Striking accuracy Jamahal Hill Striking accuracy: 54% 54% Khalil Rountree Jr. Striking accuracy: 38% 38% Striking defense Jamahal Hill Striking defense: 46% 46% Khalil Rountree Jr. Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Jamahal Hill Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Khalil Rountree Jr. Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Takedown defense Jamahal Hill Takedown defense: 73% 73% Khalil Rountree Jr. Takedown defense: 58% 58% Sub attempts / 15 min Jamahal Hill Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Khalil Rountree Jr. Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 60% 60% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 35% 35%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Hill's superior striking accuracy (54% vs 38%) and significant strike differential (+3.67 vs -0.78) give him a clear technical edge in this matchup. Both fighters are southpaws with knockout power, but Hill's more efficient striking and 3-inch reach advantage will allow him to control distance more effectively. While both fighters are coming off losses to Alex Pereira, Hill has shown better defensive wrestling (73% TDD vs 58%) which will help keep the fight standing where he excels. Rountree's tendency to absorb significant strikes (4.51 per minute) makes him vulnerable against Hill's high-volume striking approach (7.18 strikes per minute).

GPT
Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO, 70% confidence

Jamahal Hill has a significantly higher striking volume (SLPM) and striking accuracy than Khalil Rountree Jr. Although both fighters have similar striking styles, Hill's superior defensive efficiency and takedown defense also gives him an edge in this matchup.