Ismail Naurdiev vs JunYong Park

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Park enters this matchup with significant momentum, having won 4 of his last 5 fights including two submission victories. While Naurdiev has better defensive striking metrics (68% defense vs Park's 54%), Park's volume advantage (4.77 SLPM vs Naurdiev's 3.17) and superior submission threat (0.9 submissions per fight vs 0.2) give him multiple paths to victory. Naurdiev's extended layoff since February 2020 is concerning, especially moving up from welterweight to middleweight against an established 185-pounder. Park's recent activity and proven finishing ability at middleweight should overcome Naurdiev's technical striking advantages.

JunYong Park's higher strike volume, combined with a better win rate and more submissions per fight, suggest he has a slight edge in this matchup. Naurdiev's higher defense stats may help him avoid significant damage, but Park's overall effectiveness is likely to carry the fight.