Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This matchup heavily favors Naimov due to Grad's alarming defensive liabilities. While Grad shows high volume striking (6.35 SLPM), his defense is catastrophically poor, absorbing 10.25 strikes per minute with only 49% defense. Naimov, despite his own defensive issues, has proven finishing power with recent KO/TKO wins and a more balanced skill set. Grad's 0% takedown defense is a glaring vulnerability against Naimov's 1.8 takedowns per fight. Naimov's experience advantage is substantial - he's competed 5 times recently while Grad appears to be making his UFC debut. Grad's high-risk striking style combined with poor defense creates perfect counterstriking opportunities for Naimov's proven power.

Although Bogdan Grad has a higher strike rate, he absorbs significantly more strikes than he delivers. Naimov has better takedown defense and accuracy, which could limit Grad's offensive grappling attempts. This fight will likely go to decision, with Naimov's superior defensive skills giving him the edge.