Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Tagir Ulanbekov vs Azat Maksum

Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.

FINAL: Tagir Ulanbekov by U-DEC
Tagir Ulanbekov
Tagir Ulanbekov
Age 33 · Elo 1568
WWWLW
153 days since last fight
vs
Azat Maksum
Azat Maksum
Age 30 · Elo 1461*
LW
503 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Tagir UlanbekovAzat Maksum
Claude Claude: Tagir Ulanbekov 75% Claude: Azat Maksum 25% 75% 25% GPT GPT: Tagir Ulanbekov 65% GPT: Azat Maksum 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Tagir Ulanbekov 65% Elo: Azat Maksum 35% 65% 35%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Tagir UlanbekovAzat Maksum
Strikes landed / min Tagir Ulanbekov Strikes landed / min: 3.22 3.22 Azat Maksum Strikes landed / min: 2.75 2.75 Strikes absorbed / min Tagir Ulanbekov Strikes absorbed / min: 3.30 3.30 Azat Maksum Strikes absorbed / min: 4.25 4.25 Striking accuracy Tagir Ulanbekov Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Azat Maksum Striking accuracy: 27% 27% Striking defense Tagir Ulanbekov Striking defense: 51% 51% Azat Maksum Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Tagir Ulanbekov Takedowns / 15 min: 3.71 3.71 Azat Maksum Takedowns / 15 min: 3.50 3.50 Takedown defense Tagir Ulanbekov Takedown defense: 61% 61% Azat Maksum Takedown defense: 85% 85% Sub attempts / 15 min Tagir Ulanbekov Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.1 2.1 Azat Maksum Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 45% 45% Claude: Decision 40% 40%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 30% 30% GPT: Decision 50% 50%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tagir Ulanbekov by Submission, 75% confidence

Ulanbekov holds significant advantages in grappling efficiency and submission threat that will likely dictate the fight's trajectory. His 46% takedown accuracy compared to Maksum's 22% suggests he'll control where the fight takes place. While both fighters operate from southpaw stances, Ulanbekov's 2.1 submissions per fight against Maksum's 0.5 represents a clear technical edge on the ground. Maksum's striking differential of -2.43 compared to Ulanbekov's -0.08 indicates vulnerability when exchanges remain standing. Ulanbekov's recent form shows two consecutive submission victories, demonstrating his improving finishing ability and confidence in his ground game.

GPT
Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision, 65% confidence

Tagir Ulanbekov shows superior stats in terms of striking and grappling, with a higher striking accuracy and takedown average. Although Azat Maksum has a slight edge in strike defense and takedown defense, Ulanbekov's overall win rate is significantly higher.