The market (-390, 77% implied) and Elo (60% for Dolidze) are in violent disagreement here, and the truth sits between them, closer to the market's side but well short of its number. Elo punishes de Ridder for his 2-3 UFC record on only five rated fights, but the losses were to Borralho and Allen, elite middleweights, while the wins (Whittaker, Nickal, Holland) are higher-quality scalps than anything on Dolidze's recent ledger. Dolidze arrives on his own two-fight skid, having been out-grappled and choked by Hernandez and outpointed by Christian Leroy Duncan, and his fatal statistical flaw is a 32% takedown defense, catastrophic against a decorated BJJ/judo grappler like de Ridder, even one whose 29% TD accuracy relies on clinch trips rather than shots. The move to light heavyweight helps RDR more than the raw numbers suggest: his losses came partly from depleted cardio at the 185 cut, and Dolidze is a former LHW who won't hold a size edge against the 6'4", 78-inch Dutchman. Dolidze's route is the one that beat RDR before, heavy hands in scrambles and against the fence, as Brendan Allen showed RDR's chin is breachable late. But Dolidze lacks Allen's pace and lands just 3.19 SLpM at 41% accuracy. Once RDR gets a body lock, the sequence to mount and neck is well-drilled. I'd price RDR nearer 65% than the market's 77%, the -390 line underweights his two-fight skid and chin questions, but he's still the correct side.

De Ridder's persistent clinch wrestling, positional grappling and submission chains are well suited to exploiting Dolidze's 32% takedown defense. Dolidze is dangerous on the mat and carries more striking power, but his negative striking differential and tendency to concede control should allow de Ridder to dictate where prolonged exchanges occur. After forcing Dolidze to defend repeated takedowns, de Ridder is favored to secure back control or a front-headlock submission in the middle rounds.