Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The market makes Gaziev a narrow -124 favorite, but Elo has this dead even (50/50) and the recent evidence tilts toward Nzechukwu. Gaziev has been knocked out with punches in back-to-back fights (Pericic, Cortes Acosta) and previously wilted from exhaustion against Rozenstruik - a durability and cardio profile that is deteriorating, reflected in his -27 Elo trend. Nzechukwu, despite the heel-hook loss to Walker, has looked comfortable at heavyweight as a striker, out-volumes Gaziev significantly (4.96 vs 2.94 SLPM), absorbs less relative to output, and owns a 5-inch reach edge as a southpaw against an orthodox opponent whose striking defense sits at just 45%. Gaziev's path is an early takedown-heavy grind, but Nzechukwu's 80% TD defense makes that difficult to sustain, and Gaziev historically empties his gas tank by round 2. Once this becomes a kickboxing match past the first round, Nzechukwu's length, volume, and Gaziev's demonstrated chin fragility point to a knockout. I disagree with the market lean here: it appears to be underweighting two consecutive first-round KO losses on Gaziev's ledger.

Nzechukwu's superior output, positive striking differential, five-inch reach advantage, and stronger striking defense give him the better tools to extend exchanges and punish Gaziev as the pace accumulates. Gaziev is dangerous early with power and wrestling, but his low output, 45% striking defense, and -1.98 significant-strike differential create a difficult matchup if he cannot secure sustained control. Nzechukwu's 80% takedown defense should help him keep enough of the fight standing to produce a second-round stoppage.