Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Young is the rare debutant-opponent with a genuinely meaningful UFC resume: three full UFC fights including back-to-back decision wins over Thiago Moises (a longtime lightweight gatekeeper - a quality scalp) and Maheshate. His profile is that of a high-output decision grinder: 6.32 SLpM at 52% accuracy with a +1.2 strike differential, 76% takedown defense, and zero finishes in his logged run - every one of his last four fights went to the cards. Dorsainvil is 5-0 but making his UFC debut with no verifiable data; an unbeaten record over five regional fights is thin evidence against someone who just outpointed Moises. The market at -178 (62%) prices this correctly given the unknown, and I see no basis to diverge materially. Young's 49% strike defense means he eats shots, so a Dorsainvil with real power could make this uncomfortable, but Young's proven ability to win rounds against superior UFC competition and his 26-year-old upward trajectory (W-W after two close early losses) make him the sound pick. Expect a competitive but clear points win - Young simply doesn't finish people.

Young is the more supportable pick because he has demonstrated high-volume, accurate striking, producing a positive significant-strike differential of 1.20 per minute. His 76% takedown defense should also help keep the fight in his preferred phase. Dorsainvil's six-inch reach advantage presents a meaningful threat, while Young's 49% striking defense and 5.12 strikes absorbed per minute make a dominant performance unlikely. With no reliable UFC statistical sample for Dorsainvil, Young's proven output supports a competitive decision prediction rather than a high-confidence finish call.