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Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed

Women's Strawweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

FINAL: Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO Punches
Shanelle Dyer
Shanelle Dyer
Age 25 · Elo 1522*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Elise Reed
Elise Reed
Age 33 · Elo 1458
LWLWL
462 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Shanelle DyerElise Reed
Claude Claude: Shanelle Dyer 80% Claude: Elise Reed 20% 80% 20% GPT GPT: Shanelle Dyer 69% GPT: Elise Reed 31% 69% 31% Market Market: Shanelle Dyer 92% Market: Elise Reed 8% 92% 8% Elo Elo: Shanelle Dyer 59% Elo: Elise Reed 41% 59% 41%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Shanelle DyerElise Reed
Strikes landed / min Shanelle Dyer Strikes landed / min: 7.71 7.71 Elise Reed Strikes landed / min: 3.41 3.41 Strikes absorbed / min Shanelle Dyer Strikes absorbed / min: 6.72 6.72 Elise Reed Strikes absorbed / min: 3.26 3.26 Striking accuracy Shanelle Dyer Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Elise Reed Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Shanelle Dyer Striking defense: 51% 51% Elise Reed Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Shanelle Dyer Takedowns / 15 min: 0.70 0.70 Elise Reed Takedowns / 15 min: 0.46 0.46 Takedown defense Shanelle Dyer Takedown defense: 100% 100% Elise Reed Takedown defense: 53% 53% Sub attempts / 15 min Shanelle Dyer Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Elise Reed Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 60% 60% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 22% 22% GPT: Submission 3% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO, 80% confidence

This is one of the most lopsided lines on the card at -10000/+1100 (92% implied for Dyer), and everything in the data supports the direction if not the extremity. Dyer, 25, is a high-output finisher landing 7.71 significant strikes per minute with back-to-back KO/TKO wins by punches, while Reed, 33, has now been stopped by strikes in consecutive fights (Gomes, and the pattern of accumulating damage) and has lost 3 of her last 4. Reed's 3.41 SLPM output simply cannot keep pace with Dyer's volume - a 4.3 strikes-per-minute differential is enormous at strawweight - and Reed's paths to victory are narrow: her takedown game (0.46 TDAvg) is too infrequent to control a 100% TD-defense opponent, and she carries zero submission threat (0.0 SubAvg). Dyer holds height (5'6" vs 5'3") and reach (65" vs 63") advantages that compound her pressure striking. The one caution is Dyer's single-fight UFC sample and her decision loss to Carol Foro on DWCS, which shows she can be extended, so I temper confidence slightly below the market's extreme number. Expect Dyer to accumulate damage behind volume and break Reed late, consistent with Reed's declining durability.

GPT
Shanelle Dyer by Decision, 69% confidence

Dyer's substantially higher striking output and stronger significant-strike differential should allow her to control the pace over three rounds. Reed is more accurate and has greater UFC experience, but she absorbs nearly as much as she lands and may struggle to match Dyer's activity. Dyer's reported 100% takedown defense also reduces Reed's limited secondary path through grappling, though Dyer's small sample and porous striking defense keep the matchup competitive.