Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Judice is a legitimate -590 favorite and the tape supports the number. She's riding a three-fight UFC win streak with two violent finishes (knee TKO of Caliari, head-kick KO of Duben) and her output profile is elite for the division: 9.32 SLpM at 50% accuracy is nearly double Chaves' 4.97 SLpM. Critically, there is a direct comparative thread through Yuneisy Duben - Judice knocked Duben out in Round 1 (Mar 2025), while Chaves needed a split decision over the same opponent (Jun 2026). Chaves is 8-0 but effectively a UFC newcomer with only one Octagon appearance; both of her recorded recent wins were razor-thin split decisions with a 0% finish rate, and her UFCStats sample is too small to trust. Her 62% takedown defense hints at a grappling path if she tried, but her 1.5 TD/fight rate against Judice's 80% TDD suggests she won't be able to force the fight to the mat consistently. At kicking range, Judice's southpaw volume, knee/kick finishing arsenal, and pace should overwhelm Chaves by the midpoint. Confidence is capped due to Chaves' near-debut data void - undefeated fighters with hidden ceilings occasionally shock - but every observable signal points one direction. Judice's 6.62 SApM absorption is the one real vulnerability; if Chaves survives to Round 3 with her 56% accuracy counters, the split-decision specialist could steal rounds.

Judice's exceptional striking pace and larger positive differential should allow her to bank rounds through sustained output. She lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute compared with Chaves' 4.97 and owns the stronger striking differential, 2.70 to 0.77. Chaves has the clearer grappling route, but her moderate takedown accuracy faces Judice's 80% takedown defense, making prolonged control uncertain. Judice's high absorption rate creates risk in exchanges, yet her volume and defensive wrestling favor her over three rounds.