Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a classic pressure-grappler-versus-power-puncher matchup, and the deciding variable is the gap between Hernandez's takedown volume and Rodrigues's ability to keep the fight vertical for 25 minutes. Hernandez averages an enormous 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 1.6 sub average, and he compounds it with the best cardio at 185 - his wins over Dolidze (R4 RNC), Pereira (R5 TKO) and Allen all came from drowning opponents in later rounds. Rodrigues's 75% takedown defense is real, but it has never been stress-tested by a chain-wrestler of this volume; Kopylov and Hermansson don't shoot five times a round. Rodrigues's path is clear and dangerous: he lands 5.53 SLpM at 51% accuracy with legitimate one-punch power (Ferreira and Hermansson both flattened in R1), and Hernandez was just knocked out by Sean Strickland six months ago, exposing a 51% striking defense that leaks head strikes when he's forced to strike. The Elo model calls this a coin flip (50/50) against a market at 66% for Hernandez, and that tension is fair - Rodrigues's live KO equity in rounds 1-2 is higher than the -215 line implies. But the fight's probability mass shifts steadily toward Hernandez every minute Rodrigues doesn't land the bomb: RDR's output fades under wrestling pressure, and Hernandez's back-take game (two recent RNC finishes) is the most reliable finishing sequence either man owns. I side with the market's direction but slightly below its number, taking Hernandez by late submission after accumulating rounds of grinding top pressure.

Hernandez's relentless wrestling, clinch pressure, and pace are well suited to neutralizing Rodrigues's superior one-shot power. Rodrigues owns solid 75% takedown defense and is dangerous early, but Hernandez attempts takedowns at a much higher rate, lands strikes more accurately, absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute, and should accumulate control and damage as Rodrigues fatigues. Over five rounds, Hernandez is favored to force a late stoppage through sustained ground-and-pound and attritional offense.