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Ketlen Vieira vs Norma Dumont

Women's Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama

FINAL: Norma Dumont by S-DEC
Ketlen Vieira
Ketlen Vieira
Age 34 · Elo 1559
WLWLW
154 days since last fight
vs
Norma Dumont
Norma Dumont
Age 35 · Elo 1580
WWWWW
574 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Ketlen VieiraNorma Dumont
Claude Claude: Ketlen Vieira 35% Claude: Norma Dumont 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Ketlen Vieira 25% GPT: Norma Dumont 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Ketlen Vieira 47% Elo: Norma Dumont 53% 47% 53%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Ketlen VieiraNorma Dumont
Strikes landed / min Ketlen Vieira Strikes landed / min: 2.92 2.92 Norma Dumont Strikes landed / min: 3.86 3.86 Strikes absorbed / min Ketlen Vieira Strikes absorbed / min: 3.90 3.90 Norma Dumont Strikes absorbed / min: 2.16 2.16 Striking accuracy Ketlen Vieira Striking accuracy: 41% 41% Norma Dumont Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Ketlen Vieira Striking defense: 51% 51% Norma Dumont Striking defense: 65% 65% Takedowns / 15 min Ketlen Vieira Takedowns / 15 min: 1.39 1.39 Norma Dumont Takedowns / 15 min: 1.72 1.72 Takedown defense Ketlen Vieira Takedown defense: 88% 88% Norma Dumont Takedown defense: 72% 72% Sub attempts / 15 min Ketlen Vieira Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6 Norma Dumont Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 10% 10% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 75% 75%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 85% 85%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Norma Dumont by Decision, 65% confidence

Dumont's superior form (5-fight win streak), better striking defense (65% vs 51%), and positive striking differential (+1.7 vs -0.98) indicate control of standup exchanges. Common opponent analysis heavily favors Dumont - she defeated Irene Aldana while Vieira lost by KO. Dumont's successful weight cut from featherweight adds strength advantages. Her 81.8% win rate demonstrates consistency against Vieira's recent 2-3 record.

GPT
Norma Dumont by Decision, 75% confidence

Norma Dumont holds clear statistical edges in striking volume, accuracy, and defense while also being more effective in the grappling exchanges and having better performances against common opponents. Vieira struggles with striking differential and absorbs more strikes than she lands, which will likely be exploited over three rounds.