Welterweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
FINAL: Jeremiah Wells by U-DEC
Jeremiah Wells
Age 39 · Elo 1578
LLWWW
629 days since last fight
vs
Themba Gorimbo
Age 34 · Elo 1533
LWWWW
328 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Jeremiah WellsThemba Gorimbo
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Jeremiah WellsThemba Gorimbo
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Themba Gorimbo by Decision, 74% confidence
Gorimbo's wrestling dominance and improving striking will control this fight. Wells struggles against grapplers and Gorimbo's 5.8 takedowns per 15 minutes will exploit this weakness. Gorimbo's cardio and pace will wear down Wells over three rounds.
GPT
Themba Gorimbo by Decision, 71% confidence
Gorimbo holds clear statistical advantages in striking accuracy, defensive metrics, and takedown efficiency, while also boasting superior volume and physical attributes (reach, height). Wells is durable and defensively sound, but Gorimbo's output, grappling control, and ability to dictate range make him the statistically safer pick, especially over three rounds.