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Isaac Dulgarian vs Yadier del Valle

Featherweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama

FINAL: Yadier del Valle by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Isaac Dulgarian
Isaac Dulgarian
Age 29 · Elo 1500*
WLW
588 days since last fight
vs
Yadier del Valle
Yadier del Valle
Age 29 · Elo 1506*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Isaac DulgarianYadier del Valle
Claude Claude: Isaac Dulgarian 35% Claude: Yadier del Valle 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Isaac Dulgarian 33% GPT: Yadier del Valle 67% 33% 67% Elo Elo: Isaac Dulgarian 49% Elo: Yadier del Valle 51% 49% 51%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Isaac DulgarianYadier del Valle
Strikes landed / min Isaac Dulgarian Strikes landed / min: 3.37 3.37 Yadier del Valle Strikes landed / min: 7.49 7.49 Strikes absorbed / min Isaac Dulgarian Strikes absorbed / min: 1.82 1.82 Yadier del Valle Strikes absorbed / min: 3.46 3.46 Striking accuracy Isaac Dulgarian Striking accuracy: 64% 64% Yadier del Valle Striking accuracy: 67% 67% Striking defense Isaac Dulgarian Striking defense: 41% 41% Yadier del Valle Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Isaac Dulgarian Takedowns / 15 min: 5.15 5.15 Yadier del Valle Takedowns / 15 min: 2.51 2.51 Takedown defense Isaac Dulgarian Takedown defense: 0% 0% Yadier del Valle Takedown defense: 66% 66% Sub attempts / 15 min Isaac Dulgarian Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.1 2.1 Yadier del Valle Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.7 1.7

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 30% 30% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 55% 55%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 15% 15% GPT: Submission 20% 20% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Yadier del Valle by Decision, 65% confidence

Del Valle's superior striking volume (7.49 vs 3.37 SLPM) and accuracy (67% vs 64%) will overwhelm Dulgarian. While Dulgarian has better grappling stats, del Valle's 66% takedown defense and southpaw stance will create problems. Del Valle's striking differential of +4.03 is significantly better than Dulgarian's +1.55.

GPT
Yadier del Valle by Decision, 67% confidence

Yadier del Valle's significantly higher striking output (7.49 SLpM vs. 3.37), superior striking accuracy (67% vs. 64%), and better striking defense (52% vs. 41%) suggest he can control the fight at range. His takedown defense (66%) is likely sufficient to limit Dulgarian's wrestling (5.15 TD avg), and his own grappling is strong enough (2.51 TD avg, 1.7 sub avg) to threaten in scrambles. Both fighters are finish-oriented, but del Valle's output and defense give him the edge over three rounds.