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Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama

FINAL: Donte Johnson by SUB Guillotine Choke
Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson
Age 26 · Elo 1546*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Sedriques Dumas
Sedriques Dumas
Age 30 · Elo 1460
LLWWW
203 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Donte JohnsonSedriques Dumas
Claude Claude: Donte Johnson 68% Claude: Sedriques Dumas 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Donte Johnson 67% GPT: Sedriques Dumas 33% 67% 33% Elo Elo: Donte Johnson 62% Elo: Sedriques Dumas 38% 62% 38%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Donte JohnsonSedriques Dumas
Strikes landed / min Donte Johnson Strikes landed / min: 3.11 3.11 Sedriques Dumas Strikes landed / min: 2.15 2.15 Strikes absorbed / min Donte Johnson Strikes absorbed / min: 2.00 2.00 Sedriques Dumas Strikes absorbed / min: 2.03 2.03 Striking accuracy Donte Johnson Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Sedriques Dumas Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Donte Johnson Striking defense: 61% 61% Sedriques Dumas Striking defense: 58% 58% Takedowns / 15 min Donte Johnson Takedowns / 15 min: 2.00 2.00 Sedriques Dumas Takedowns / 15 min: 1.31 1.31 Takedown defense Donte Johnson Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sedriques Dumas Takedown defense: 40% 40% Sub attempts / 15 min Donte Johnson Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7 Sedriques Dumas Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 40% 40%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 61% 61% GPT: Submission 4% GPT: Decision 35% 35%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Donte Johnson by KO/TKO, 68% confidence

Johnson's exceptional striking volume (14.06 SLPM vs 2.15) and accuracy (71% vs 48%) create overwhelming offensive pressure. Despite Dumas's height and reach advantage (6'2" with 79" reach), Johnson's southpaw stance and 5.62 striking differential will neutralize this. Dumas was recently knocked out and has shown vulnerability to high-volume strikers. Johnson's striking output is 6.5x higher than Dumas's, creating constant danger.

GPT
Donte Johnson by KO/TKO, 67% confidence

Johnson displays extremely high striking volume (14.06 SLpM), excellent striking accuracy (71%), and a significant striking differential (+5.62), overwhelming Dumas's much lower output. While Dumas possesses a modest grappling threat (1.31 TD avg, 35% TD accuracy), Johnson's relentless pace and offensive efficiency are likely to overwhelm Dumas before grappling can be a decisive factor. Dumas's poor takedown defense (40%) and lower striking defense (58%) make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed on the feet. If Dumas cannot force grappling exchanges early or keep Johnson off him, he is likely to be finished by strikes.