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Steve Garcia vs David Onama

Featherweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama

FINAL: Steve Garcia by KO/TKO Punches
Steve Garcia
Steve Garcia
Age 33 · Elo 1595
WWWWW
112 days since last fight
vs
David Onama
David Onama
Age 31 · Elo 1552
WWWWL
189 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Steve GarciaDavid Onama
Claude Claude: Steve Garcia 68% Claude: David Onama 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Steve Garcia 70% GPT: David Onama 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Steve Garcia 56% Elo: David Onama 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Steve GarciaDavid Onama
Strikes landed / min Steve Garcia Strikes landed / min: 5.04 5.04 David Onama Strikes landed / min: 5.07 5.07 Strikes absorbed / min Steve Garcia Strikes absorbed / min: 2.34 2.34 David Onama Strikes absorbed / min: 4.89 4.89 Striking accuracy Steve Garcia Striking accuracy: 56% 56% David Onama Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Steve Garcia Striking defense: 46% 46% David Onama Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Steve Garcia Takedowns / 15 min: 1.17 1.17 David Onama Takedowns / 15 min: 1.05 1.05 Takedown defense Steve Garcia Takedown defense: 88% 88% David Onama Takedown defense: 52% 52% Sub attempts / 15 min Steve Garcia Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6 David Onama Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 22% 22% GPT: Submission 8% 8% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Steve Garcia by KO/TKO, 68% confidence

Garcia's veteran experience and finishing ability should overwhelm Onama. Garcia has shown improved striking defense and power in recent outings, while Onama has struggled with consistency at the UFC level. Garcia's pressure and body work will break down Onama's gas tank.

GPT
Steve Garcia by Decision, 70% confidence

Garcia holds significant statistical advantages in striking accuracy, takedown defense, and strike differential. While both fighters throw at an identical pace, Garcia absorbs far fewer strikes per minute and defends takedowns at a much higher rate. Onama's negative strike differential and low takedown accuracy suggest Garcia can control the tempo and mitigate Onama's power threats.