Featherweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
FINAL: Steve Garcia by KO/TKO Punches
Steve Garcia
Age 33 · Elo 1595
WWWWW
112 days since last fight
vs
David Onama
Age 31 · Elo 1552
WWWWL
189 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Steve GarciaDavid Onama
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Steve GarciaDavid Onama
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Steve Garcia by KO/TKO, 68% confidence
Garcia's veteran experience and finishing ability should overwhelm Onama. Garcia has shown improved striking defense and power in recent outings, while Onama has struggled with consistency at the UFC level. Garcia's pressure and body work will break down Onama's gas tank.
GPT
Steve Garcia by Decision, 70% confidence
Garcia holds significant statistical advantages in striking accuracy, takedown defense, and strike differential. While both fighters throw at an identical pace, Garcia absorbs far fewer strikes per minute and defends takedowns at a much higher rate. Onama's negative strike differential and low takedown accuracy suggest Garcia can control the tempo and mitigate Onama's power threats.