Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
FINAL: Charles Radtke by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Charles Radtke
Age 35 · Elo 1508
LLWLW
175 days since last fight
vs
Daniel Frunza
Age 31 · Elo 1448*
L
210 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Charles RadtkeDaniel Frunza
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Charles RadtkeDaniel Frunza
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Charles Radtke by Decision, 62% confidence
Radtke's superior striking accuracy (53% vs 44%) and defensive wrestling (100% TDD) should neutralize Frunza's volume-heavy approach. While Frunza throws more (4.94 SLPM vs 3.38), his poor accuracy and worse defense (51% vs 56%) create openings for Radtke's more measured counter-striking. Radtke's recent KO win shows improved finishing ability, though his chin remains suspect after back-to-back KO losses.
GPT
Charles Radtke by Decision, 67% confidence
Radtke's superior striking accuracy (53% vs 44%), lower strikes absorbed per minute, and perfect takedown defense give him a technical edge over Frunza, who allows more damage than he delivers and has a negative strike differential. Frunza's higher output is offset by poorer defensive metrics and lack of grappling offense.