Carnelossi's superior finishing ability (KO and submission wins) combined with better overall effectiveness metrics gives her multiple paths to victory. Her 66.7% win rate doubles Alencar's 33.3%, showing consistency against UFC competition. While Alencar has slightly better takedown defense, Carnelossi's 42% takedown accuracy advantage and submission threat create constant danger. The 3-inch reach advantage for Carnelossi helps maintain striking distance.

Carnelossi has a higher striking accuracy, greater striking volume, and a significant takedown accuracy advantage. Alencar's striking defense is slightly better, but her negative strike differential and low offensive metrics limit her upside. Carnelossi's takedown defense is a concern, but Alencar's grappling output and finishing threat are low, making it unlikely she capitalizes. Expect Carnelossi to outwork Alencar, mixing striking and occasional top control to secure a decision.