Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Carnelossi's superior finishing ability (KO and submission wins) combined with better overall effectiveness metrics gives her multiple paths to victory. Her 66.7% win rate doubles Alencar's 33.3%, showing consistency against UFC competition. While Alencar has slightly better takedown defense, Carnelossi's 42% takedown accuracy advantage and submission threat create constant danger. The 3-inch reach advantage for Carnelossi helps maintain striking distance.

Carnelossi has a higher striking accuracy, greater striking volume, and a significant takedown accuracy advantage. Alencar's striking defense is slightly better, but her negative strike differential and low offensive metrics limit her upside. Carnelossi's takedown defense is a concern, but Alencar's grappling output and finishing threat are low, making it unlikely she capitalizes. Expect Carnelossi to outwork Alencar, mixing striking and occasional top control to secure a decision.