Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Despite Nascimento's experience edge, Estevam's superior grappling output (3.35 TDAvg vs 1.55) and better striking defense fundamentals position him well. Nascimento's 16% takedown defense is alarming against a wrestler averaging over 3 takedowns per fight. While Nascimento has better striking differential (+0.93 vs -0.41), Estevam's 64% striking accuracy suggests technical proficiency that could exploit Nascimento's 50% striking defense.

Nascimento's superior striking defense, higher strike differential, and proven grappling submission threat give him the edge against Estevam, whose takedown defense is extremely low and absorbs more strikes than he lands. While Estevam is aggressive with takedowns, his accuracy is low and Nascimento's submission game is a danger if the fight hits the mat.