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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyHeavyweightPrelims
Marcin TyburaWINNER
Marcin
Tybura
13-8UFC
39 yrsElo 1572
VS
Mick Parkin
Mick
Parkin
4-0UFC
29 yrsElo 1541
Final: Marcin Tybura by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
70%
Parkin
GPT
65%
Parkin
Elo
54%
Tybura
1572 vs 1541
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3" Height 6'4"
78" Reach 79"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.57 Landed / min 4.91
3.34 Absorbed / minlower better 4.15
48% Strike accuracy 52%
55% Strike defense 58%
1.42 Takedowns / 15 1.49
33% TD accuracy 41%
77% TD defense 50%
0.1 Subs / 15 0.3
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 60%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 25%
60%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 60%Submission 15%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 60%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 30%
60%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 60%Submission 10%Decision 30%
Formnewest first
Marcin Tybura125 days out
W
Jhonata Diniz
· 2024-11-16
W
Tai Tuivasa
SUB · 2024-03-16
L
Serghei Spivac
SUB · 2024-03-02
L
Tom Aspinall
KO/TKO · 2023-07-22
W
Blagoy Ivanov
U-DEC · 2023-02-04
Mick Parkin364 days out
W
Mohammed Usman
U-DEC · 2024-03-23
W
Lukasz Brzeski
KO/TKO · 2024-02-17
W
Caio Machado
U-DEC · 2023-11-18
W
Jamal Pogues
U-DEC · 2023-07-22
Why
Claude
Mick Parkin
70% · KO/TKO
  • Parkin's +1.34 strike differential advantage
  • Parkin's 100% win rate and strong finishing instincts
  • Tybura's recent KO loss indicating chin concerns
  • Parkin's superior cardio and work rate metrics
Write-up

Parkin's superior volume (4.91 vs 3.57 SLPM) and recent form (5-fight win streak) contrast sharply with Tybura's 1-3 recent record. Parkin's youth advantage and higher finishing rate suggest he can exploit Tybura's declining durability.

GPT
Mick Parkin
65% · KO/TKO
  • Parkin's higher striking volume
  • Parkin's solid takedown defense
  • Parkin's momentum and higher win rate
Write-up

Parkin has a clear advantage in striking volume, and his takedown defense should help him keep the fight standing where he can use his striking prowess. Tybura's grappling skills are unlikely to be a deciding factor, as Parkin's takedown defense is solid. Parkin also has the momentum, with a strong recent form and a higher win rate.