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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyWelterweightMain card
Gunnar
Nelson
10-5UFC
VS
Kevin
Holland
14-10UFC
Final: Kevin Holland by U-DEC
Who wins
Nelson winsevenHolland wins
Claude 70% Holland
GPT 65% Holland
Elo 51% Nelson
Claude
70%
Holland
GPT
65%
Holland
Elo
51%
Nelson
1581 vs 1572
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11"
Height
6'3"
72"
Reach
81"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
1.84
Landed / min
4.24
3.00
Absorbed / minlower better
3.21
61%
Strike accuracy
49%
49%
Strike defense
50%
1.90
Takedowns / 15
0.83
59%
TD accuracy
38%
66%
TD defense
54%
1.0
Subs / 15
0.6
How it ends
55%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 55%Submission 15%Decision 30%
60%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO, Round 3
KO/TKO 60%Submission 20%Decision 20%
Formnewest first
Gunnar Nelson735 days out
W
Bryan Barberena
SUB · 2023-03-18
W
Takashi Sato
U-DEC · 2022-03-19
L
Gilbert Burns
U-DEC · 2019-09-28
L
Leon Edwards
S-DEC · 2019-03-16
W
Alex Oliveira
SUB · 2018-12-08
Kevin Holland62 days out
L
Reinier de Ridder
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2025-01-18
L
Roman Dolidze
KO/TKO · 2024-04-13
L
Michael Page
U-DEC · 2024-03-09
W
Michal Oleksiejczuk
SUB · 2024-01-01
L
Jack Della Maddalena
S-DEC · 2023-09-16
Why
Claude
Kevin Holland
70% · KO/TKO
- Holland's 9" reach advantage crucial for striking control
- Nelson's -1.16 striking differential indicates vulnerability
- Holland's 54% takedown defense improved in recent fights
- Holland's height and length neutralize Nelson's clinch entries
Write-up
Holland's significant reach advantage (81" vs 72") and superior striking volume (4.24 vs 1.84 SLPM) create major problems for Nelson's grappling-focused approach. Holland's improved takedown defense and Nelson's declining striking defense (49%) suggest Holland can keep the fight standing where he holds clear advantages.
GPT
Kevin Holland
65% · KO/TKO
- Kevin Holland's superior striking volume and accuracy
- Gunnar Nelson's grappling advantage may be neutralized by Holland's reach and height advantage
- Holland's recent form shows a trend of winning against grapplers
- Nelson's defensive vulnerabilities against high-output strikers
Write-up
Gunnar Nelson has a significant grappling advantage, but Kevin Holland's superior striking and recent form make him the more likely winner. Holland's reach and height advantage should allow him to control the distance and keep Nelson at bay. Furthermore, Nelson's recent fight history shows a vulnerability to strikers with high output, which matches Holland's style.