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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyFlyweightPrelims
Lone'er
Kavanagh
1-0UFC
VS
Felipe dos
Santos
1-2UFC
Final: Lone'er Kavanagh by U-DEC
Who wins
Kavanagh winsevenSantos wins
GPT 60% Kavanagh
Elo 60% Kavanagh
Claude 65% Kavanagh
Claude
65%
Kavanagh
GPT
60%
Kavanagh
Elo
60%
Kavanagh
1539 vs 1466
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'4"
Height
5'7"
67"
Reach
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
4.97
Landed / min
3.87
4.14
Absorbed / minlower better
3.78
66%
Strike accuracy
37%
62%
Strike defense
41%
n/a
Takedowns / 15
0.00
0%
TD accuracy
0%
0%
TD defense
14%
n/a
Subs / 15
0.3
Small sample: Lone'er Kavanagh, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
65%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 10%Decision 65%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Lone'er Kavanagh118 days out
W
Jose Ochoa
· 2024-11-23
Felipe dos Santos364 days out
L
Andre Lima
U-DEC · 2024-03-23
W
Victor Altamirano
S-DEC · 2024-02-24
L
Manel Kape
U-DEC · 2023-09-09
Why
Claude
Lone'er Kavanagh
65% · Decision
- Kavanagh's +29% striking accuracy differential
- Dos Santos' 41% strike defense liability
- Kavanagh's 4.97 vs 3.87 strikes landed per minute advantage
- Dos Santos' poor 14% takedown defense limiting grappling options
Write-up
Kavanagh's superior striking accuracy (66% vs 37%) and defensive metrics (62% vs 41%) suggest a technical striking advantage that should allow him to outpoint dos Santos at range. Dos Santos' recent 1-3 record and declining defensive stats indicate vulnerability to precise strikers.
GPT
Lone'er Kavanagh
60% · Decision
- Kavanagh's superior striking accuracy and volume
- Kavanagh's better strike defense
- dos Santos's reach advantage is unlikely to be decisive
Write-up
Both fighters have shown a preference for striking, but Kavanagh's striking accuracy and volume are significantly higher. Kavanagh also has a better strike defense, which should enable him to avoid significant damage from dos Santos. Although dos Santos has a slight reach advantage, this is unlikely to be a deciding factor given the striking tendencies of both fighters.