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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyFlyweightPrelims
Lone'er KavanaghWINNER
Lone'er
Kavanagh
1-0UFC
25 yrsElo 1539*
VS
Felipe dos Santos
Felipe dos
Santos
1-2UFC
24 yrsElo 1466*
Final: Lone'er Kavanagh by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
65%
Kavanagh
GPT
60%
Kavanagh
Elo
60%
Kavanagh
1539 vs 1466
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'4" Height 5'7"
67" Reach 70"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.97 Landed / min 3.87
4.14 Absorbed / minlower better 3.78
66% Strike accuracy 37%
62% Strike defense 41%
n/a Takedowns / 15 0.00
0% TD accuracy 0%
0% TD defense 14%
n/a Subs / 15 0.3
Small sample: Lone'er Kavanagh, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 65%
65%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 10%Decision 65%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Lone'er Kavanagh118 days out
W
Jose Ochoa
· 2024-11-23
Felipe dos Santos364 days out
L
Andre Lima
U-DEC · 2024-03-23
W
Victor Altamirano
S-DEC · 2024-02-24
L
Manel Kape
U-DEC · 2023-09-09
Why
Claude
Lone'er Kavanagh
65% · Decision
  • Kavanagh's +29% striking accuracy differential
  • Dos Santos' 41% strike defense liability
  • Kavanagh's 4.97 vs 3.87 strikes landed per minute advantage
  • Dos Santos' poor 14% takedown defense limiting grappling options
Write-up

Kavanagh's superior striking accuracy (66% vs 37%) and defensive metrics (62% vs 41%) suggest a technical striking advantage that should allow him to outpoint dos Santos at range. Dos Santos' recent 1-3 record and declining defensive stats indicate vulnerability to precise strikers.

GPT
Lone'er Kavanagh
60% · Decision
  • Kavanagh's superior striking accuracy and volume
  • Kavanagh's better strike defense
  • dos Santos's reach advantage is unlikely to be decisive
Write-up

Both fighters have shown a preference for striking, but Kavanagh's striking accuracy and volume are significantly higher. Kavanagh also has a better strike defense, which should enable him to avoid significant damage from dos Santos. Although dos Santos has a slight reach advantage, this is unlikely to be a deciding factor given the striking tendencies of both fighters.