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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyLightweightPrelims
Jai Herbert
Jai
Herbert
4-4UFC
36 yrsElo 1519
VS
Chris PadillaWINNER
Chris
Padilla
2-0UFC
29 yrsElo 1605
Final: Chris Padilla by S-DEC
Who wins
Claude
75%
Padilla
GPT
75%
Padilla
Elo
62%
Padilla
1519 vs 1605
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'1" Height 5'9"
77" Reach 74"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.16 Landed / min 6.19
3.37 Absorbed / minlower better 4.88
42% Strike accuracy 54%
52% Strike defense 49%
0.50 Takedowns / 15 1.13
23% TD accuracy 28%
59% TD defense 80%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.3
Small sample: Chris Padilla, 2 UFC fights.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 55%Claude: Submission 20%Claude: Decision 25%
55%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 55%Submission 20%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 50%GPT: Decision 30%
50%Submission
GPT calls Submission, Round 3
KO/TKO 20%Submission 50%Decision 30%
Formnewest first
Jai Herbert391 days out
W
Rolando Bedoya
U-DEC · 2024-02-24
L
Fares Ziam
U-DEC · 2023-07-22
W
Ludovit Klein
M-DEC · 2023-03-18
W
Kyle Nelson
U-DEC · 2022-07-23
L
Ilia Topuria
KO/TKO · 2022-03-19
Chris Padilla329 days out
W
James Llontop
SUB · 2024-04-27
W
Rongzhu
KO/TKO · 2024-03-23
Why
Claude
Chris Padilla
75% · KO/TKO
  • Padilla's +2.64 striking volume advantage
  • 61% striking accuracy vs Herbert's 52% defense
  • Padilla's perfect finish rate and upward momentum
  • Herbert's historical vulnerability to pressure fighters
Write-up

Padilla's aggressive striking style (5.8 SLPM) and superior accuracy (61% vs 42%) match up well against Herbert's defensive vulnerabilities. Herbert's negative strike differential and 52% defense suggest vulnerability to Padilla's power. Padilla's momentum and finishing ability are significant factors.

GPT
Chris Padilla
75% · Submission
  • Padilla's significantly higher striking accuracy and volume.
  • Herbert's weak takedown defense against Padilla's strong takedown game.
  • Padilla's strong recent form, including multiple KO/TKO victories.
Write-up

Despite Herbert's slightly higher striking defense and reach advantage, Padilla has a superior striking accuracy, volume, and takedown accuracy. Herbert's takedown defense is lacking, which could open him up to Padilla's submission threats.