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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyLightweightPrelims
Jordan Vucenic
Jordan
Vucenic
0-1UFC
29 yrsElo 1459*
VS
Chris DuncanWINNER
Chris
Duncan
3-1UFC
31 yrsElo 1574
Final: Chris Duncan by SUB Guillotine Choke
Who wins
Claude
70%
Duncan
GPT
75%
Duncan
Elo
66%
Duncan
1459 vs 1574
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'10" Height 5'10"
73" Reach 71"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
2.27 Landed / min 4.83
2.00 Absorbed / minlower better 4.57
40% Strike accuracy 45%
55% Strike defense 50%
0.00 Takedowns / 15 2.92
0% TD accuracy 40%
75% TD defense 55%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.6
Small sample: Jordan Vucenic, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 30%Claude: Decision 45%
45%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 30%Decision 45%
GPT: KO/TKO 65%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 25%
65%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO, Round 3
KO/TKO 65%Submission 10%Decision 25%
Formnewest first
Jordan Vucenic391 days out
L
Guram Kutateladze
U-DEC · 2024-02-24
Chris Duncan350 days out
W
Bolaji Oki
SUB · 2024-04-06
L
Manuel Torres
SUB · 2024-02-24
W
Yanal Ashmouz
U-DEC · 2023-07-22
W
Omar Morales
S-DEC · 2023-03-18
Why
Claude
Chris Duncan
70% · Decision
  • Duncan's +2.43 strike differential advantage and higher accuracy (46% vs 40%)
  • 3.53 takedown average provides phase-shifting control
  • Duncan's 80% win rate and recent submission victories show finishing ability
  • Vucenic's 75% TDD may be tested against Duncan's persistent wrestling
Write-up

Duncan's superior volume striking (4.7 vs 2.27 SLPM) and wrestling advantage (3.53 TDs/fight vs 0) create multiple paths to victory. Vucenic's recent downward trend contrasts with Duncan's upward momentum. Duncan's ability to mix striking and grappling should neutralize Vucenic's counter-striking game.

GPT
Chris Duncan
75% · KO/TKO
  • Chris Duncan's higher striking volume and accuracy
  • Jordan Vucenic's limited offensive grappling
  • Chris Duncan's recent winning streak
  • Jordan Vucenic's downward trend
Write-up

Chris Duncan's superior striking volume (SLPM 4.7 vs 2.27) and significant strike differential (0.7 vs 0.27) is likely to wear down Vucenic over time. Although Vucenic has a superior takedown defense, Duncan's higher takedown average (3.53 vs 0) could make it a tough night for Vucenic. Moreover, Duncan's recent form shows a consistent winning streak compared to Vucenic's losses.