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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyLight HeavyweightMain card
Jan Blachowicz
Jan
Blachowicz
13-7UFC
42 yrsElo 1595
VS
Carlos UlbergWINNER
Carlos
Ulberg
6-2UFC
34 yrsElo 1623
Final: Carlos Ulberg by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
60%
Ulberg
GPT
70%
Ulberg
Elo
54%
Ulberg
1595 vs 1623
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'2" Height 6'4"
78" Reach 77"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.41 Landed / min 7.41
2.91 Absorbed / minlower better 3.60
50% Strike accuracy 59%
53% Strike defense 52%
1.09 Takedowns / 15 0.95
50% TD accuracy 75%
68% TD defense 75%
0.3 Subs / 15 0.3
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 60%Claude: Submission 5%Claude: Decision 35%
60%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 60%Submission 5%Decision 35%
GPT: KO/TKO 55%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 35%
55%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO, Round 3
KO/TKO 55%Submission 10%Decision 35%
Formnewest first
Jan Blachowicz602 days out
L
Alex Pereira
S-DEC · 2023-07-29
W
Magomed Ankalaev
S-DEC · 2022-12-10
W
Aleksandar Rakic
KO/TKO · 2022-05-14
L
Glover Teixeira
SUB · 2021-10-30
W
Israel Adesanya
U-DEC · 2021-03-06
Carlos Ulberg118 days out
L
Volkan Oezdemir
· 2024-11-23
W
Alonzo Menifield
KO/TKO · 2023-12-16
W
Da Woon Jung
SUB · 2023-09-09
W
Ihor Potieria
KO/TKO · 2023-05-13
W
Nicolae Negumereanu
KO/TKO · 2022-11-12
Why
Claude
Carlos Ulberg
60% · KO/TKO
  • Ulberg's +3.81 striking differential vs Blachowicz's +0.5
  • Ulberg's 75% takedown defense negates Blachowicz's wrestling threat
  • Ulberg's 3" height advantage aids in range control
  • Blachowicz's recent decline in strike absorption rate
Write-up

Ulberg's significant striking volume (7.41 vs 3.41 SLPM) and youth advantage should overcome Blachowicz's experience. Ulberg's 59% striking accuracy and superior movement create opportunities against Blachowicz's declining defense. Recent form shows Ulberg on upward trajectory while Blachowicz has shown signs of decline.

GPT
Carlos Ulberg
70% · KO/TKO
  • Carlos Ulberg's superior striking volume and KO/TKO trend.
  • Jan Blachowicz's recent form showing a moderate upward trend, but with a slower striking rate.
  • Carlos Ulberg's overall high win rate and effective strike rate.
Write-up

Carlos Ulberg, despite his recent loss, has an impressive striking volume which significantly exceeds that of Jan Blachowicz. He also has a strong trend of winning by knockout, which combined with his striking volume, could be a deciding factor in this matchup. Despite the similar styles, Ulberg seems to have the edge in this fight.