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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. BradyWomen's StrawweightMain card
Molly McCann
Molly
McCann
7-6UFC
34 yrsElo 1493
VS
Alexia ThainaraWINNER
Alexia
Thainara
29 yrsElo 1546*UFC debut
Final: Alexia Thainara by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Who wins
Claude
65%
Thainara
GPT
70%
Thainara
Elo
58%
Thainara
1493 vs 1546
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'4" Height 5'4"
62" Reach 67"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
5.39 Landed / min 4.80
4.72 Absorbed / minlower better 2.76
49% Strike accuracy 47%
62% Strike defense 55%
1.84 Takedowns / 15 3.95
36% TD accuracy 53%
39% TD defense 100%
0.5 Subs / 15 1.4
Small sample: Alexia Thainara, 0 UFC fights.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 15%Claude: Submission 20%Claude: Decision 65%
65%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 15%Submission 20%Decision 65%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 40%GPT: Decision 40%
40%Submission
GPT calls Submission, Round 3
KO/TKO 20%Submission 40%Decision 40%
Formnewest first
Molly McCann398 days out
L
Bruna Brasil
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Diana Belbita
SUB · 2024-02-03
L
Julija Stoliarenko
SUB · 2023-07-22
L
Erin Blanchfield
SUB · 2022-11-12
W
Hannah Goldy
KO/TKO · 2022-07-23
Alexia Thainara
No UFC fights
Why
Claude
Alexia Thainara
65% · Decision
  • Thainara's +3.66 strike differential vs McCann's +0.67 indicates striking dominance
  • 5-inch reach advantage for Thainara enables outside striking control
  • McCann's recent weight class change and 114.8 day average between fights suggests potential adaptation issues
  • Thainara's 71% strike defense vs McCann's 62% projects better damage mitigation
Write-up

Thainara's superior striking differential (+3.66 vs +0.67) and defensive metrics (71% vs 62%) suggest she can control distance and accumulate damage. McCann's recent 1-4 record and struggles with weight cuts from flyweight to strawweight raise durability concerns. Thainara's 100% takedown accuracy against McCann's 39% takedown defense creates a clear path to control periods.

GPT
Alexia Thainara
70% · Submission
  • Alexia Thainara's striking volume is significantly higher with 6.73 SLpM compared to Molly McCann's 5.39 SLpM.
  • Thainara's superior defensive metrics with a StrDef of 71% compared to McCann's 62%.
  • Thainara's grappling efficiency is indicated by her 100% takedown accuracy.
  • Thainara's superior reach advantage of 5 inches.
Write-up

Based on the statistical analysis and style matchup dynamics, Alexia Thainara appears to have a significant advantage in striking volume, defensive metrics, and grappling efficiency. Molly McCann's recent performance trend shows inconsistencies, and her defensive vulnerability might be exploited by Thainara. Moreover, Thainara's superior reach can aid her in range management and distance control.