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UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezBantamweightMain card
Steve ErcegWINNER
Steve
Erceg
3-3UFC
30 yrsElo 1523
VS
Ode Osbourne
Ode
Osbourne
5-6UFC
33 yrsElo 1468
Final: Steve Erceg by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
65%
Erceg
GPT
72%
Erceg
Elo
58%
Erceg
1523 vs 1468
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'8" Height 5'7"
68" Reach 73"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
4.37 Landed / min 3.26
4.22 Absorbed / minlower better 4.01
48% Strike accuracy 40%
53% Strike defense 45%
1.16 Takedowns / 15 1.21
26% TD accuracy 28%
60% TD defense 63%
0.5 Subs / 15 0.6
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 20%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 65%
65%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 15%Decision 65%
GPT: KO/TKO 18%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 72%
72%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 10%Decision 72%
Formnewest first
Steve Erceg133 days out
L
Brandon Moreno
U-DEC · 2025-03-29
L
Kai Kara-France
KO/TKO · 2024-03-09
W
Matt Schnell
KO/TKO · 2024-03-02
L
Alexandre Pantoja
U-DEC · 2023-12-09
W
Alessandro Costa
U-DEC · 2023-11-11
Ode Osbourne126 days out
W
Luis Gurule
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-04-05
L
Ronaldo Rodriguez
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
L
Jafel Filho
SUB · 2024-03-16
L
Asu Almabayev
SUB · 2023-08-05
W
Charles Johnson
S-DEC · 2023-02-25
Why
Claude
Steve Erceg
65% · Decision
  • Erceg lands 1.11 more strikes per minute with better accuracy (48% vs 40%)
  • Osbourne on 4-fight losing streak with declining performance
  • Orthodox vs southpaw creates favorable angles for Erceg
  • Erceg's 8% better striking defense neutralizes reach disadvantage
Write-up

Erceg's superior striking defense (53% vs 45%) and volume advantage (4.37 vs 3.26 SLPM) should control this matchup. Osbourne's 4-fight losing streak and southpaw stance create openings for the orthodox Erceg. Despite Osbourne's 5-inch reach advantage, his 40% striking accuracy is concerning against Erceg's better defensive metrics.

GPT
Steve Erceg
72% · Decision
  • Superior striking accuracy and volume for Erceg (4.37 SLpM, 48% accuracy vs Osbourne's 3.26 SLpM, 40%)
  • Positive strike differential and better defensive efficiency (Erceg: +0.15, 53% defense vs Osbourne: -0.75, 45%)
  • Osbourne has higher submission attempts, but Erceg's grappling is defensively solid and he is less likely to be finished
Write-up

Erceg's striking is more accurate and defensively sound, landing at a higher rate while absorbing fewer clean shots than Osbourne. Despite Osbourne's slight edge in takedown defense and submission attempts, Erceg's overall output, strike differential, and control metrics point to him winning a competitive but clear decision.