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Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

FINAL: Steve Erceg by U-DEC
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg
Age 30 · Elo 1523
LLWLW
133 days since last fight
vs
Ode Osbourne
Ode Osbourne
Age 33 · Elo 1479
WLLLW
126 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Steve ErcegOde Osbourne
Claude Claude: Steve Erceg 65% Claude: Ode Osbourne 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Steve Erceg 72% GPT: Ode Osbourne 28% 72% 28% Elo Elo: Steve Erceg 56% Elo: Ode Osbourne 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Steve ErcegOde Osbourne
Strikes landed / min Steve Erceg Strikes landed / min: 4.37 4.37 Ode Osbourne Strikes landed / min: 3.26 3.26 Strikes absorbed / min Steve Erceg Strikes absorbed / min: 4.22 4.22 Ode Osbourne Strikes absorbed / min: 4.01 4.01 Striking accuracy Steve Erceg Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Ode Osbourne Striking accuracy: 40% 40% Striking defense Steve Erceg Striking defense: 53% 53% Ode Osbourne Striking defense: 45% 45% Takedowns / 15 min Steve Erceg Takedowns / 15 min: 1.16 1.16 Ode Osbourne Takedowns / 15 min: 1.21 1.21 Takedown defense Steve Erceg Takedown defense: 60% 60% Ode Osbourne Takedown defense: 63% 63% Sub attempts / 15 min Steve Erceg Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5 Ode Osbourne Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 72% 72%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Steve Erceg by Decision, 65% confidence

Erceg's superior striking defense (53% vs 45%) and volume advantage (4.37 vs 3.26 SLPM) should control this matchup. Osbourne's 4-fight losing streak and southpaw stance create openings for the orthodox Erceg. Despite Osbourne's 5-inch reach advantage, his 40% striking accuracy is concerning against Erceg's better defensive metrics.

GPT
Steve Erceg by Decision, 72% confidence

Erceg's striking is more accurate and defensively sound, landing at a higher rate while absorbing fewer clean shots than Osbourne. Despite Osbourne's slight edge in takedown defense and submission attempts, Erceg's overall output, strike differential, and control metrics point to him winning a competitive but clear decision.