Julius Walker vs Rafael Cerqueira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This matchup features two UFC debutants with limited data. Cerqueira's alarming 22% striking defense and absorption of 32.94 strikes per minute in his single recorded bout suggests major defensive liabilities. While he showed 100% accuracy, the 1.18 SLPM output is extremely low. Walker's orthodox stance against Cerqueira's southpaw creates a classic open-stance dynamic. Given Cerqueira's defensive issues and Walker being 8 years younger (25 vs 33), Walker should capitalize on his opponent's vulnerabilities through consistent pressure.

Despite highly limited data and a concerning defensive profile, Cerqueira has at least demonstrated offensive output and striking accuracy, while Walker has no measurable UFC statistics. Cerqueira's significant strikes landed per minute and 100% accuracy suggest some offensive potential, but his extremely high SApM (strikes absorbed per minute) and poor striking defense are red flags. However, with Walker being a statistical unknown, Cerqueira's slight experience edge is favored.