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UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezLight HeavyweightPrelims
Julius WalkerWINNER
Julius
Walker
0-1UFC
26 yrsElo 1507*
VS
Rafael Cerqueira
Rafael
Cerqueira
0-1UFC
34 yrsElo 1456*
Final: Julius Walker by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
58%
Walker
GPT
60%
Cerqueira
Elo
57%
Walker
1507 vs 1456
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
n/a Height 6'3"
n/a Reach 76"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
n/a Landed / min 1.18
n/a Absorbed / minlower better 32.94
0% Strike accuracy 100%
0% Strike defense 22%
0% TD accuracy 0%
0% TD defense 0%
Small sample: Julius Walker, 1 UFC fight; Rafael Cerqueira, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 30%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 55%
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 15%Decision 55%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 5%GPT: Decision 75%
75%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 5%Decision 75%
Formnewest first
Julius Walker167 days out
L
Alonzo Menifield
S-DEC · 2025-02-22
Rafael Cerqueira167 days out
L
Modestas Bukauskas
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-02-22
Why
Claude
Julius Walker
58% · Decision
  • Cerqueira's 22% striking defense is among the worst recorded
  • Age advantage for Walker (25) over Cerqueira (33) in debut
  • Orthodox vs Southpaw creates open-stance striking opportunities
  • Cerqueira absorbed 32.94 strikes/minute in limited action
Write-up

This matchup features two UFC debutants with limited data. Cerqueira's alarming 22% striking defense and absorption of 32.94 strikes per minute in his single recorded bout suggests major defensive liabilities. While he showed 100% accuracy, the 1.18 SLPM output is extremely low. Walker's orthodox stance against Cerqueira's southpaw creates a classic open-stance dynamic. Given Cerqueira's defensive issues and Walker being 8 years younger (25 vs 33), Walker should capitalize on his opponent's vulnerabilities through consistent pressure.

GPT
Rafael Cerqueira
60% · Decision
  • Cerqueira's offensive output and 100% striking accuracy, albeit from a likely small sample
  • Walker's total lack of UFC statistical data indicates inexperience or debut status
  • Both fighters have no grappling metrics, making a striking-based decision more likely
Write-up

Despite highly limited data and a concerning defensive profile, Cerqueira has at least demonstrated offensive output and striking accuracy, while Walker has no measurable UFC statistics. Cerqueira's significant strikes landed per minute and 100% accuracy suggest some offensive potential, but his extremely high SApM (strikes absorbed per minute) and poor striking defense are red flags. However, with Walker being a statistical unknown, Cerqueira's slight experience edge is favored.