Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Johns' superior striking defense (69% vs 46%) and takedown defense (85% vs 57%) create significant defensive advantages. While Matsumoto has higher output (5.2 SLPM), his 40% accuracy is concerning against Johns' more measured approach. The common opponent analysis heavily favors Matsumoto (he submitted Argueta while Johns lost), but Johns has faced higher-level competition throughout his UFC career. His 4-fight decision win streak shows excellent cardio and fight IQ.

Matsumoto's higher striking volume and finishing instincts give him an edge, though his defensive liabilities and Johns' takedown defense suggest a competitive bout. Matsumoto's recent win over a shared opponent and more diverse attack tip the scales slightly in his favor, but Johns' defense and experience should keep him from being finished.