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Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

FINAL: Uros Medic by KO/TKO Punch
Uros Medic
Uros Medic
Age 32 · Elo 1564
LWLWW
209 days since last fight
vs
Gilbert Urbina
Gilbert Urbina
Age 29 · Elo 1456*
LWL
552 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Uros MedicGilbert Urbina
Claude Claude: Uros Medic 75% Claude: Gilbert Urbina 25% 75% 25% GPT GPT: Uros Medic 68% GPT: Gilbert Urbina 32% 68% 32% Elo Elo: Uros Medic 65% Elo: Gilbert Urbina 35% 65% 35%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Uros MedicGilbert Urbina
Strikes landed / min Uros Medic Strikes landed / min: 5.51 5.51 Gilbert Urbina Strikes landed / min: 5.61 5.61 Strikes absorbed / min Uros Medic Strikes absorbed / min: 3.18 3.18 Gilbert Urbina Strikes absorbed / min: 4.61 4.61 Striking accuracy Uros Medic Striking accuracy: 60% 60% Gilbert Urbina Striking accuracy: 57% 57% Striking defense Uros Medic Striking defense: 58% 58% Gilbert Urbina Striking defense: 44% 44% Takedowns / 15 min Uros Medic Takedowns / 15 min: 0.38 0.38 Gilbert Urbina Takedowns / 15 min: 3.01 3.01 Takedown defense Uros Medic Takedown defense: 55% 55% Gilbert Urbina Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Uros Medic Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Gilbert Urbina Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.8 0.8

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 25% 25%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 55% 55% GPT: Submission 7% GPT: Decision 38% 38%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Uros Medic by KO/TKO, 75% confidence

Medic's 3 KO/TKO wins in last 5 fights showcase elite finishing power, while Urbina's 0% takedown defense and recent KO loss to lower competition exposes major defensive liabilities. Medic's superior striking defense (58% vs 44%) and southpaw stance creates awkward angles. Urbina's height won't compensate for defensive gaps.

GPT
Uros Medic by KO/TKO, 68% confidence

Medic holds superior striking accuracy, better striking defense, and a significant edge in strike differential. Urbina's grappling volume and submission threat are offset by his very poor takedown defense and high strikes absorbed per minute, making him vulnerable to Medic's efficient and accurate striking game.