Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
FINAL: Uros Medic by KO/TKO Punch
Uros Medic
Age 32 · Elo 1564
LWLWW
209 days since last fight
vs
Gilbert Urbina
Age 29 · Elo 1456*
LWL
552 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Uros MedicGilbert Urbina
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Uros MedicGilbert Urbina
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Uros Medic by KO/TKO, 75% confidence
Medic's 3 KO/TKO wins in last 5 fights showcase elite finishing power, while Urbina's 0% takedown defense and recent KO loss to lower competition exposes major defensive liabilities. Medic's superior striking defense (58% vs 44%) and southpaw stance creates awkward angles. Urbina's height won't compensate for defensive gaps.
GPT
Uros Medic by KO/TKO, 68% confidence
Medic holds superior striking accuracy, better striking defense, and a significant edge in strike differential. Urbina's grappling volume and submission threat are offset by his very poor takedown defense and high strikes absorbed per minute, making him vulnerable to Medic's efficient and accurate striking game.