Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Stoliarenko's elite submission game (1.7 subs per fight) presents a nightmare matchup for Fernandes, who has shown defensive vulnerabilities on the ground. Fernandes' 59% takedown defense won't hold up against Stoliarenko's persistent grappling approach. While Fernandes has the striking advantage on paper, Stoliarenko's willingness to absorb damage to secure takedowns and her proven finishing ability make her the likely victor.

Stoliarenko's high submission average and aggressive grappling present a clear path to victory against Fernandes, who has weak takedown defense and limited submission threat. While Fernandes is a more accurate striker, she absorbs more damage than she lands and struggles against opponents with strong grappling credentials. Stoliarenko's ability to secure takedowns and hunt for submissions makes her the likely winner if she can close the distance.