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UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. HernandezMiddleweightMain card
Roman Dolidze
Roman
Dolidze
9-3UFC
37 yrsElo 1571
VS
Anthony HernandezWINNER
Anthony
Hernandez
8-2UFC
31 yrsElo 1600
Final: Anthony Hernandez by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Who wins
Claude
72%
Hernandez
GPT
75%
Hernandez
Elo
54%
Hernandez
1571 vs 1600
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'2" Height 6'0"
76" Reach 75"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
3.19 Landed / min 4.57
3.71 Absorbed / minlower better 3.10
41% Strike accuracy 60%
48% Strike defense 51%
1.16 Takedowns / 15 5.88
43% TD accuracy 48%
32% TD defense 68%
0.7 Subs / 15 1.6
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 30%Claude: Decision 45%
45%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 30%Decision 45%
GPT: KO/TKO 10%GPT: Submission 50%GPT: Decision 40%
50%Submission
GPT calls Submission
KO/TKO 10%Submission 50%Decision 40%
Formnewest first
Roman Dolidze147 days out
W
Marvin Vettori
U-DEC · 2025-03-15
W
Kevin Holland
KO/TKO · 2024-04-13
L
Nassourdine Imavov
M-DEC · 2024-02-03
W
Anthony Smith
U-DEC · 2024-01-27
L
Marvin Vettori
U-DEC · 2023-03-18
Anthony Hernandez167 days out
W
Brendan Allen
U-DEC · 2025-02-22
W
Michel Pereira
KO/TKO · 2024-04-27
W
Roman Kopylov
SUB · 2024-02-17
W
Edmen Shahbazyan
KO/TKO · 2023-05-20
W
Marc-Andre Barriault
SUB · 2022-09-17
Why
Claude
Anthony Hernandez
72% · Decision
  • Hernandez averages 6.64 takedowns per fight with relentless pressure
  • Dolidze's 33% takedown defense is a critical vulnerability
  • Hernandez on 5-fight finish streak with 3 KOs and 2 submissions
  • Dolidze's recent weight class changes (2 in last 5 fights) suggest size management issues
Write-up

Hernandez's superior grappling volume (6.64 TDAvg vs 1.33) and cardio advantage will be decisive. While Dolidze has KO power and performed better against common opponent Kevin Holland, Hernandez's 5-fight win streak shows elite momentum. His 65% TD defense and 2.3 submission average create multiple paths to victory against Dolidze's 33% TD defense.

GPT
Anthony Hernandez
75% · Submission
  • Hernandez averages 6.64 takedowns per fight with 44% accuracy, compared to Dolidze's 1.33 and 42%.
  • Dolidze's takedown defense is only 33%, making him susceptible to being grounded and controlled.
  • Hernandez's SubAvg is 2.3 (highest among active UFC middleweights), showing strong finishing ability once on the mat.
Write-up

Hernandez's pace, superior grappling metrics, and high submission output are likely to overwhelm Dolidze, whose takedown defense has been a consistent weakness. Despite Dolidze's historical edge against common opponents, Hernandez's volume, accuracy, and pressure-based style present significant matchup problems.