Middleweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
FINAL: Anthony Hernandez by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Roman Dolidze
Age 37 · Elo 1571
WWLWL
147 days since last fight
vs
Anthony Hernandez
Age 31 · Elo 1600
WWWWW
167 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Roman DolidzeAnthony Hernandez
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Roman DolidzeAnthony Hernandez
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Anthony Hernandez by Decision, 72% confidence
Hernandez's superior grappling volume (6.64 TDAvg vs 1.33) and cardio advantage will be decisive. While Dolidze has KO power and performed better against common opponent Kevin Holland, Hernandez's 5-fight win streak shows elite momentum. His 65% TD defense and 2.3 submission average create multiple paths to victory against Dolidze's 33% TD defense.
GPT
Anthony Hernandez by Submission, 75% confidence
Hernandez's pace, superior grappling metrics, and high submission output are likely to overwhelm Dolidze, whose takedown defense has been a consistent weakness. Despite Dolidze's historical edge against common opponents, Hernandez's volume, accuracy, and pressure-based style present significant matchup problems.