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Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez

Middleweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

FINAL: Anthony Hernandez by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Roman Dolidze
Roman Dolidze
Age 37 · Elo 1571
WWLWL
147 days since last fight
vs
Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
Age 31 · Elo 1600
WWWWW
167 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Roman DolidzeAnthony Hernandez
Claude Claude: Roman Dolidze 28% Claude: Anthony Hernandez 72% 28% 72% GPT GPT: Roman Dolidze 25% GPT: Anthony Hernandez 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Roman Dolidze 46% Elo: Anthony Hernandez 54% 46% 54%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Roman DolidzeAnthony Hernandez
Strikes landed / min Roman Dolidze Strikes landed / min: 3.19 3.19 Anthony Hernandez Strikes landed / min: 4.57 4.57 Strikes absorbed / min Roman Dolidze Strikes absorbed / min: 3.71 3.71 Anthony Hernandez Strikes absorbed / min: 3.10 3.10 Striking accuracy Roman Dolidze Striking accuracy: 41% 41% Anthony Hernandez Striking accuracy: 60% 60% Striking defense Roman Dolidze Striking defense: 48% 48% Anthony Hernandez Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Roman Dolidze Takedowns / 15 min: 1.16 1.16 Anthony Hernandez Takedowns / 15 min: 5.88 5.88 Takedown defense Roman Dolidze Takedown defense: 32% 32% Anthony Hernandez Takedown defense: 68% 68% Sub attempts / 15 min Roman Dolidze Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7 Anthony Hernandez Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.6 1.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 30% 30% Claude: Decision 45% 45%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 50% 50% GPT: Decision 40% 40%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Anthony Hernandez by Decision, 72% confidence

Hernandez's superior grappling volume (6.64 TDAvg vs 1.33) and cardio advantage will be decisive. While Dolidze has KO power and performed better against common opponent Kevin Holland, Hernandez's 5-fight win streak shows elite momentum. His 65% TD defense and 2.3 submission average create multiple paths to victory against Dolidze's 33% TD defense.

GPT
Anthony Hernandez by Submission, 75% confidence

Hernandez's pace, superior grappling metrics, and high submission output are likely to overwhelm Dolidze, whose takedown defense has been a consistent weakness. Despite Dolidze's historical edge against common opponents, Hernandez's volume, accuracy, and pressure-based style present significant matchup problems.