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Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill

Women's Strawweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

FINAL: Iasmin Lucindo by U-DEC
Iasmin Lucindo
Iasmin Lucindo
Age 23 · Elo 1564
LWWWW
153 days since last fight
vs
Angela Hill
Angela Hill
Age 40 · Elo 1506
WLWWL
174 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Iasmin LucindoAngela Hill
Claude Claude: Iasmin Lucindo 68% Claude: Angela Hill 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Iasmin Lucindo 70% GPT: Angela Hill 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Iasmin Lucindo 58% Elo: Angela Hill 42% 58% 42%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Iasmin LucindoAngela Hill
Strikes landed / min Iasmin Lucindo Strikes landed / min: 3.52 3.52 Angela Hill Strikes landed / min: 5.46 5.46 Strikes absorbed / min Iasmin Lucindo Strikes absorbed / min: 2.91 2.91 Angela Hill Strikes absorbed / min: 5.00 5.00 Striking accuracy Iasmin Lucindo Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Angela Hill Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Iasmin Lucindo Striking defense: 66% 66% Angela Hill Striking defense: 60% 60% Takedowns / 15 min Iasmin Lucindo Takedowns / 15 min: 2.40 2.40 Angela Hill Takedowns / 15 min: 0.76 0.76 Takedown defense Iasmin Lucindo Takedown defense: 66% 66% Angela Hill Takedown defense: 72% 72% Sub attempts / 15 min Iasmin Lucindo Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2 Angela Hill Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 10% 10% Claude: Submission 25% 25% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 8% 8% GPT: Submission 12% 12% GPT: Decision 80% 80%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Iasmin Lucindo by Decision, 68% confidence

Lucindo's wrestling advantage (2.4 TDAvg vs 0.76) and superior win rate (85.7% vs 46.4%) indicate a clear path to victory. Despite Hill's volume edge (5.46 vs 3.52 SLPM), Lucindo's 66% striking defense and age advantage (22 vs 40) suggest she can weather the storm and control with grappling. Lucindo's 5-fight win streak shows championship trajectory.

GPT
Iasmin Lucindo by Decision, 70% confidence

Lucindo's superior grappling metrics, higher takedown accuracy, and strong defensive numbers (striking and takedowns) give her an edge over Hill, who relies heavily on volume striking but is less effective defensively and in grappling exchanges. Hill's experience and output keep her competitive, but Lucindo's ability to mix in takedowns and control exchanges statistically tips the fight in her favor.