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Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez

Featherweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

FINAL: Andre Fili by S-DEC
Andre Fili
Andre Fili
Age 35 · Elo 1539
LLWWL
167 days since last fight
vs
Christian Rodriguez
Christian Rodriguez
Age 27 · Elo 1519
LWWLW
133 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Andre FiliChristian Rodriguez
Claude Claude: Andre Fili 68% Claude: Christian Rodriguez 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Andre Fili 32% GPT: Christian Rodriguez 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Andre Fili 53% Elo: Christian Rodriguez 47% 53% 47%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Andre FiliChristian Rodriguez
Strikes landed / min Andre Fili Strikes landed / min: 3.88 3.88 Christian Rodriguez Strikes landed / min: 3.65 3.65 Strikes absorbed / min Andre Fili Strikes absorbed / min: 4.11 4.11 Christian Rodriguez Strikes absorbed / min: 2.56 2.56 Striking accuracy Andre Fili Striking accuracy: 37% 37% Christian Rodriguez Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Striking defense Andre Fili Striking defense: 51% 51% Christian Rodriguez Striking defense: 58% 58% Takedowns / 15 min Andre Fili Takedowns / 15 min: 2.15 2.15 Christian Rodriguez Takedowns / 15 min: 1.07 1.07 Takedown defense Andre Fili Takedown defense: 70% 70% Christian Rodriguez Takedown defense: 65% 65% Sub attempts / 15 min Andre Fili Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2 Christian Rodriguez Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.1 1.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 22% 22% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 63% 63%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 13% 13% GPT: Submission 22% 22% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Andre Fili by Decision, 68% confidence

Fili's significant physical advantages (4-inch height, 3-inch reach) combined with his superior takedown defense (70% vs 65%) should allow him to control distance and dictate the fight. Rodriguez's submission game (1.1 sub avg) poses the primary threat, but Fili's experience and improved defensive wrestling should neutralize this. Fili's recent KO loss shows vulnerability, but his 3-fight win streak prior demonstrates consistency at this level.

GPT
Christian Rodriguez by Decision, 68% confidence

Rodriguez holds clear statistical advantages in striking accuracy, striking defense, and submission threat. His positive strike differential (+1.09) and lower strikes absorbed per minute indicate superior defensive skills. Fili's volume and wrestling are respectable, but Rodriguez's submission rate and technical efficiency give him more avenues to win over three rounds.