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Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa

Women's Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen

FINAL: Melissa Croden by KO/TKO Punches
Melissa Croden
Melissa Croden
Age 34 · Elo 1528*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Tainara Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa
Age 34 · Elo 1493*
LWW
154 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa
Claude Claude: Melissa Croden 22% Claude: Tainara Lisboa 78% 22% 78% GPT GPT: Melissa Croden 25% GPT: Tainara Lisboa 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Melissa Croden 55% Elo: Tainara Lisboa 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa
Strikes landed / min Melissa Croden Strikes landed / min: 4.27 4.27 Tainara Lisboa Strikes landed / min: 2.05 2.05 Strikes absorbed / min Melissa Croden Strikes absorbed / min: 2.13 2.13 Tainara Lisboa Strikes absorbed / min: 1.40 1.40 Striking accuracy Melissa Croden Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Tainara Lisboa Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Melissa Croden Striking defense: 59% 59% Tainara Lisboa Striking defense: 54% 54% Takedowns / 15 min Melissa Croden Takedowns / 15 min: 2.02 2.02 Tainara Lisboa Takedowns / 15 min: 2.05 2.05 Takedown defense Melissa Croden Takedown defense: 66% 66% Tainara Lisboa Takedown defense: 70% 70% Sub attempts / 15 min Melissa Croden Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Tainara Lisboa Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 50% 50% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 15% 15% GPT: Submission 20% 20% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tainara Lisboa by Submission, 78% confidence

Lisboa's complete statistical profile versus Croden's lack of UFC data creates a significant mismatch. Lisboa averages 2.05 takedowns and 0.5 submissions per fight, demonstrating clear grappling threats. Her recent submission victory and 2-0 UFC record indicate she's comfortable finishing fights. Croden's UFC debut status and absence of metrics suggest vulnerability to experienced opposition.

GPT
Tainara Lisboa by Decision, 75% confidence

Tainara Lisboa has demonstrated effective striking volume, accuracy, and grappling efficiency in her UFC appearances, whereas Melissa Croden is debuting with no measurable UFC stats. Lisboa's balanced skill set and proven defensive metrics make her a clear favorite against an untested opponent.