Women's Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
FINAL: Melissa Croden by KO/TKO Punches
Melissa Croden
Age 34 · Elo 1528*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Tainara Lisboa
Age 34 · Elo 1493*
LWW
154 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Tainara Lisboa by Submission, 78% confidence
Lisboa's complete statistical profile versus Croden's lack of UFC data creates a significant mismatch. Lisboa averages 2.05 takedowns and 0.5 submissions per fight, demonstrating clear grappling threats. Her recent submission victory and 2-0 UFC record indicate she's comfortable finishing fights. Croden's UFC debut status and absence of metrics suggest vulnerability to experienced opposition.
GPT
Tainara Lisboa by Decision, 75% confidence
Tainara Lisboa has demonstrated effective striking volume, accuracy, and grappling efficiency in her UFC appearances, whereas Melissa Croden is debuting with no measurable UFC stats. Lisboa's balanced skill set and proven defensive metrics make her a clear favorite against an untested opponent.