Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Nelson's superior performance against their common opponent Marco Polo Reyes (Nelson won by KO, Frevola lost by KO) indicates a stylistic edge. Frevola is on a dangerous 3-fight KO loss streak, showing significant durability issues. Nelson's switch stance and better defensive metrics (51% vs 57% striking defense nominally favors Frevola, but Nelson's overall defensive efficiency is better) should allow him to avoid Frevola's power while accumulating damage.

Frevola's superior wrestling volume (2.39 TDs per fight, 39% accuracy) and higher submission activity (1.0 SubAvg) give him the edge in grappling exchanges, where Nelson has struggled defensively at times. While Nelson performs better against common opponents and has a slight striking accuracy advantage, Frevola's better striking defense (57%) and positive strike differential (-0.32 vs. -1.21) allow him to avoid major damage and control the pacing. Nelson's strong takedown defense (73%) could make takedowns harder, but Frevola's persistence and superior overall win rate (50%) tilt the decision in his favor over three rounds.