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UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. AllenWelterweightMain card
Kevin Holland
Kevin
Holland
16-11UFC
32 yrsElo 1572
VS
Mike MalottWINNER
Mike
Malott
4-2UFC
33 yrsElo 1591
Final: Mike Malott by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
68%
Holland
GPT
68%
Holland
Elo
53%
Malott
1572 vs 1591
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3" Height 6'1"
81" Reach 73"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.24 Landed / min 4.02
3.21 Absorbed / minlower better 3.09
49% Strike accuracy 48%
50% Strike defense 56%
0.83 Takedowns / 15 1.63
38% TD accuracy 50%
54% TD defense 57%
0.6 Subs / 15 0.7
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 20%Claude: Decision 55%
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 20%Decision 55%
GPT: KO/TKO 22%GPT: Submission 12%GPT: Decision 66%
66%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 22%Submission 12%Decision 66%
Formnewest first
Kevin Holland91 days out
L
Daniel Rodriguez
U-DEC · 2025-07-19
W
Vicente Luque
SUB Anaconda Choke · 2025-06-07
W
Gunnar Nelson
U-DEC · 2025-03-22
L
Reinier de Ridder
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2025-01-18
L
Roman Dolidze
KO/TKO · 2024-04-13
Mike Malott161 days out
W
Charles Radtke
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-05-10
L
win
· 2024-11-02
L
Neil Magny
KO/TKO · 2024-01-20
W
Adam Fugitt
SUB · 2023-06-10
W
Yohan Lainesse
SUB · 2023-02-25
Why
Claude
Kevin Holland
68% · Decision
  • Holland holds 8-inch reach advantage crucial for distance management
  • Malott's 16% takedown defense is extremely vulnerable
  • Holland's 54% takedown defense has improved significantly
  • Home crowd advantage for Malott in Vancouver may impact judges' scoring
Write-up

Holland's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and superior striking volume (4.24 vs 3.85 SLPM) should control distance against the Canadian. Despite recent losses, Holland's experience edge and defensive wrestling improvements make him difficult to control. Malott's poor takedown defense (16%) negates his grappling threat.

GPT
Kevin Holland
68% · Decision
  • Significant reach advantage for Holland (8 inches)
  • Malott's low takedown defense (16%)
  • Holland's proven durability and striking output
Write-up

Holland holds a significant 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking metrics, enabling him to control range and tempo. While Malott has higher takedown and submission averages, his takedown defense is very weak (16%), making him unlikely to consistently impose his grappling. Holland's experience against higher-level opposition, solid striking defense, and submission awareness further tilt the matchup in his favor.