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Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen

Middleweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen

FINAL: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO
Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder
Age 35 · Elo 1532
WWL
168 days since last fight
vs
Brendan Allen
Brendan Allen
Age 29 · Elo 1642
WLWLW
91 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Reinier de RidderBrendan Allen
Claude Claude: Reinier de Ridder 25% Claude: Brendan Allen 75% 25% 75% GPT GPT: Reinier de Ridder 65% GPT: Brendan Allen 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Reinier de Ridder 35% Elo: Brendan Allen 65% 35% 65%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Reinier de RidderBrendan Allen
Strikes landed / min Reinier de Ridder Strikes landed / min: 2.47 2.47 Brendan Allen Strikes landed / min: 3.75 3.75 Strikes absorbed / min Reinier de Ridder Strikes absorbed / min: 2.36 2.36 Brendan Allen Strikes absorbed / min: 3.78 3.78 Striking accuracy Reinier de Ridder Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Brendan Allen Striking accuracy: 52% 52% Striking defense Reinier de Ridder Striking defense: 46% 46% Brendan Allen Striking defense: 47% 47% Takedowns / 15 min Reinier de Ridder Takedowns / 15 min: 2.56 2.56 Brendan Allen Takedowns / 15 min: 1.52 1.52 Takedown defense Reinier de Ridder Takedown defense: 40% 40% Brendan Allen Takedown defense: 57% 57% Sub attempts / 15 min Reinier de Ridder Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6 Brendan Allen Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.1 1.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 55% 55% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 5% GPT: Submission 65% 65% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Brendan Allen by Submission, 75% confidence

Allen has established UFC experience with proven submission skills (1.3 subs per fight) while de Ridder makes his UFC debut with no recorded statistics. Allen's 75% win rate and recent submission victories over Paul Craig and Andre Muniz demonstrate elite grappling. De Ridder's ONE Championship pedigree is untested against UFC-caliber competition.

GPT
Reinier de Ridder by Submission, 65% confidence

Despite a lack of UFC stats, de Ridder is an elite grappler with a proven record in high-level MMA, particularly in submission grappling. Allen is well-rounded and dangerous on the ground, but his takedown defense (58%) and tendency to engage in grappling exchanges may play into de Ridder's strengths. Allen's striking volume is higher, but de Ridder's physicality and submission prowess give him the edge if the fight hits the mat.