Cody Gibson vs Aoriqileng

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Gibson's grappling advantage is significant - his 68% takedown defense versus Aoriqileng's 58% combined with his submission threat (0.4 per fight) creates a clear path to victory. Aoriqileng's recent form shows vulnerability, losing 3 of his last 4 fights, including a KO loss. Gibson's recent submission wins demonstrate his finishing ability when he gets the fight to the ground.

Gibson's superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs. 48% for Aoriqileng), better takedown defense (68% vs. 58%), and more balanced striking-to-absorption ratio give him a technical edge. While Aoriqileng is more aggressive and accurate, he absorbs significantly more strikes than he lands, which favors Gibson's more measured approach. Gibson's modest grappling and submission threat may also help him control key rounds.