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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. SongLight HeavyweightPrelims
Modestas
Bukauskas
4-4UFC
VS
Rafael
Cerqueira
Final: Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
Bukauskas winsevenCerqueira wins
Elo 62% Bukauskas
GPT 65% Bukauskas
Claude 75% Bukauskas
Claude
75%
Bukauskas
GPT
65%
Bukauskas
Elo
62%
Bukauskas
1540 vs 1456
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3"
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
3.14
Landed / min
1.18
3.86
Absorbed / minlower better
32.94
43%
Strike accuracy
100%
50%
Strike defense
22%
0.23
Takedowns / 15
n/a
66%
TD accuracy
0%
82%
TD defense
0%
0.1
Subs / 15
n/a
Small sample: Rafael Cerqueira, 0 UFC fights.
How it ends
45%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 25%Decision 45%
50%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 20%Decision 50%
Formnewest first
Modestas Bukauskas371 days out
W
Marcin Prachnio
SUB · 2024-02-17
L
Vitor Petrino
KO/TKO · 2023-11-04
W
Zac Pauga
U-DEC · 2023-06-17
W
Tyson Pedro
U-DEC · 2023-02-11
L
Khalil Rountree Jr.
KO/TKO · 2021-09-04
Rafael Cerqueira
No UFC fights
Why
Claude
Modestas Bukauskas
75% · Decision
- Bukauskas' 3.21 vs 1.18 SLPM differential indicates striking dominance
- 71% takedown defense protects against grappling threats
- Switch stance versatility neutralizes Cerqueira's southpaw advantage
- Recent submission wins show evolved finishing ability
Write-up
Bukauskas holds significant statistical advantages across all metrics - 3.21 SLPM vs 1.18, better defense (49% vs 22%), proven takedown defense (71%), and superior recent form with 4 wins in last 5 fights including submissions. Cerqueira's concerning 32.94 strikes absorbed per minute suggests defensive liability.
GPT
Modestas Bukauskas
65% · Decision
- Bukauskas's balanced striking and grappling stats
- Bukauskas's recent form and trend
- Cerqueira's high strikes absorbed per minute
- Bukauskas's striking volume and defensive efficiency
Write-up
Bukauskas's more balanced striking and grappling stats give him an edge in this fight. His recent form also shows a promising upward trend, with his striking volume and defensive efficiency being key. Cerqueira, on the other hand, has extremely high strikes absorbed per minute, which could prove detrimental in this matchup.