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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. SongFeatherweightPrelims
Andre
Fili
13-10UFC
VS
Melquizael
Costa
2-2UFC
Final: Melquizael Costa by SUB Guillotine Choke
Who wins
Fili winsevenCosta wins
GPT 65% Costa
Claude 60% Costa
Elo 55% Costa
Claude
60%
Costa
GPT
65%
Costa
Elo
55%
Costa
1552 vs 1584
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11"
Height
5'10"
74"
Reach
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
3.88
Landed / min
3.46
4.11
Absorbed / minlower better
2.29
37%
Strike accuracy
46%
51%
Strike defense
58%
2.15
Takedowns / 15
2.50
43%
TD accuracy
35%
70%
TD defense
52%
0.2
Subs / 15
1.1
How it ends
45%Submission
Claude calls Submission, Round 3
KO/TKO 25%Submission 45%Decision 30%
50%Submission
GPT calls Submission, Round 3
KO/TKO 25%Submission 50%Decision 25%
Formnewest first
Andre Fili378 days out
L
Dan Ige
KO/TKO · 2024-02-10
W
Cub Swanson
S-DEC · 2024-01-27
W
Lucas Almeida
KO/TKO · 2023-12-16
L
Nathaniel Wood
U-DEC · 2023-07-22
W
Bill Algeo
S-DEC · 2022-09-17
Melquizael Costa406 days out
W
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
SUB · 2024-01-13
L
Steve Garcia
KO/TKO · 2023-12-09
W
Austin Lingo
U-DEC · 2023-07-15
L
Thiago Moises
SUB · 2023-01-21
Why
Claude
Melquizael Costa
60% · Submission
- Better striking efficiency with 46% accuracy vs 37%
- 1.1 submissions per fight vs Fili's 0.2
- Positive momentum with 2 recent submission wins
- Southpaw stance advantage against orthodox fighter
Write-up
Costa's superior striking defense (58% vs 51%) and submission threat (1.1 SubAvg) create multiple paths to victory. Recent momentum and more efficient striking (3.46 SLPM with better accuracy) suggest tactical advantages.
GPT
Melquizael Costa
65% · Submission
- Costa's superior striking accuracy and defensive efficiency
- Costa's strong grappling and submission skills
- Fili's inconsistent recent form compared to Costa's consistency
- Complex stance matchup favoring Costa's Southpaw stance
Write-up
While both fighters show similar striking volume, Costa has a significant edge in striking accuracy and defensive efficiency. His superior grappling skills, evidenced by a higher takedown average and significant submission average, could provide a key advantage. Fili's recent form shows inconsistency, while Costa has shown high consistency with a moderate upward trend. Costa's recent wins via submission and his high submission average suggest he may look for a finish on the ground.