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Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales

Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato
Age 29 · Elo 1528*
W
531 days since last fight
vs
Paul Craig
Paul Craig
Age 37 · Elo 1493
LLLWL
181 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Rodolfo BellatoPaul Craig
Claude Claude: Rodolfo Bellato 78% Claude: Paul Craig 22% 78% 22% GPT GPT: Rodolfo Bellato 70% GPT: Paul Craig 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Rodolfo Bellato 55% Elo: Paul Craig 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Rodolfo BellatoPaul Craig
Strikes landed / min Rodolfo Bellato Strikes landed / min: 6.47 6.47 Paul Craig Strikes landed / min: 2.45 2.45 Strikes absorbed / min Rodolfo Bellato Strikes absorbed / min: 5.90 5.90 Paul Craig Strikes absorbed / min: 2.97 2.97 Striking accuracy Rodolfo Bellato Striking accuracy: 61% 61% Paul Craig Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Striking defense Rodolfo Bellato Striking defense: 44% 44% Paul Craig Striking defense: 44% 44% Takedowns / 15 min Rodolfo Bellato Takedowns / 15 min: 1.09 1.09 Paul Craig Takedowns / 15 min: 1.68 1.68 Takedown defense Rodolfo Bellato Takedown defense: 100% 100% Paul Craig Takedown defense: 37% 37% Sub attempts / 15 min Rodolfo Bellato Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5 Paul Craig Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.6 1.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 75% 75% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 15% 15%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 25% 25% GPT: Submission 15% 15% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO, 78% confidence

This matchup heavily favors Bellato despite his relative UFC inexperience. Craig is moving back up to light heavyweight after an unsuccessful middleweight run where he's lost four straight fights. Bellato's striking metrics are exceptional (6.47 SLPM with 61% accuracy vs Craig's 2.45 SLPM with 46% accuracy), giving him a massive +4.02 volume differential. Craig's submission threat is his only path to victory, but Bellato's perfect 100% takedown defense suggests he can keep the fight standing. Craig's defensive vulnerabilities (44% strike defense) combined with his declining durability make him highly susceptible to Bellato's power. Craig has been finished via KO/TKO in two of his last four losses, while Bellato is coming off an impressive KO win in his UFC debut.

GPT
Rodolfo Bellato by Decision, 70% confidence

Rodolfo Bellato has a higher SLPM, better StrAcc, and perfect TDDef. Although he has less submissions per fight, his overall win rate is much higher than Paul Craig's.