Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos

Lightweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales

FINAL: Mairon Santos by U-DEC
Sodiq Yusuff
Sodiq Yusuff
Age 31 · Elo 1552
LLWWL
399 days since last fight
vs
Mairon Santos
Mairon Santos
Age 24 · Elo 1588*
WW
69 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Sodiq YusuffMairon Santos
Claude Claude: Sodiq Yusuff 35% Claude: Mairon Santos 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Sodiq Yusuff 65% GPT: Mairon Santos 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Sodiq Yusuff 45% Elo: Mairon Santos 55% 45% 55%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Sodiq YusuffMairon Santos
Strikes landed / min Sodiq Yusuff Strikes landed / min: 5.66 5.66 Mairon Santos Strikes landed / min: 4.77 4.77 Strikes absorbed / min Sodiq Yusuff Strikes absorbed / min: 4.51 4.51 Mairon Santos Strikes absorbed / min: 1.85 1.85 Striking accuracy Sodiq Yusuff Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Mairon Santos Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Striking defense Sodiq Yusuff Striking defense: 53% 53% Mairon Santos Striking defense: 57% 57% Takedowns / 15 min Sodiq Yusuff Takedowns / 15 min: 0.28 0.28 Mairon Santos Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Takedown defense Sodiq Yusuff Takedown defense: 62% 62% Mairon Santos Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Sodiq Yusuff Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Mairon Santos Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 60% 60% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Mairon Santos by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Santos represents a dangerous matchup for Yusuff despite being the less experienced UFC fighter. Yusuff enters on a two-fight losing streak, most recently suffering a devastating KO loss to Edson Barboza. Santos has shown exceptional striking efficiency in his UFC debut, maintaining a +2.92 strike differential compared to Yusuff's +1.15. While Yusuff has the higher volume (5.66 vs 4.77 SLPM), Santos' superior defense (57% vs 53%) and counter-striking ability make him the more effective striker. Yusuff's grappling advantage is minimal with only 0.28 takedowns per fight at 20% accuracy. Santos has demonstrated explosive finishing ability with a KO win in his UFC debut, while Yusuff has shown increasing vulnerability to strikes. The age difference (Santos is 7 years younger) further tilts this matchup in Santos' favor as Yusuff appears to be declining physically.

GPT
Sodiq Yusuff by Decision, 65% confidence

Based on the analysis, Yusuff has a higher StrAcc, StrDef, TDAcc, and TDDef than Santos. Furthermore, Yusuff's striking volume is higher and he has proven to be more successful in grappling. However, Santos does have a higher StrDef, indicating a good defensive strategy.