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Tecia Pennington vs Luana Pinheiro

Women's Strawweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales

FINAL: Tecia Pennington by U-DEC
Tecia Pennington
Tecia Pennington
Age 35 · Elo 1549
WLLWW
399 days since last fight
vs
Luana Pinheiro
Luana Pinheiro
Age 32 · Elo 1493
LLWWW
510 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Tecia PenningtonLuana Pinheiro
Claude Claude: Tecia Pennington 68% Claude: Luana Pinheiro 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Tecia Pennington 65% GPT: Luana Pinheiro 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Tecia Pennington 58% Elo: Luana Pinheiro 42% 58% 42%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Tecia PenningtonLuana Pinheiro
Strikes landed / min Tecia Pennington Strikes landed / min: 4.82 4.82 Luana Pinheiro Strikes landed / min: 3.57 3.57 Strikes absorbed / min Tecia Pennington Strikes absorbed / min: 3.53 3.53 Luana Pinheiro Strikes absorbed / min: 4.17 4.17 Striking accuracy Tecia Pennington Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Luana Pinheiro Striking accuracy: 40% 40% Striking defense Tecia Pennington Striking defense: 61% 61% Luana Pinheiro Striking defense: 63% 63% Takedowns / 15 min Tecia Pennington Takedowns / 15 min: 0.57 0.57 Luana Pinheiro Takedowns / 15 min: 2.24 2.24 Takedown defense Tecia Pennington Takedown defense: 63% 63% Luana Pinheiro Takedown defense: 66% 66% Sub attempts / 15 min Tecia Pennington Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Luana Pinheiro Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 80% 80%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tecia Pennington by Decision, 68% confidence

Pennington's superior striking volume (4.82 SLPM vs 3.57) and positive strike differential (+1.29 vs -0.60) will be the determining factor in this matchup. While Pinheiro has the grappling advantage with 2.24 TDs per fight compared to Pennington's 0.57, Pennington's 63% TDD should be sufficient to keep the fight standing where she excels. Pennington is also riding a positive momentum with two recent wins, while Pinheiro is on a concerning three-fight losing streak with two of those losses coming by finish. Against common opponents, Pennington has demonstrated superior performance with a 100% win rate compared to Pinheiro's 50%, including a notable contrast against Angela Hill where Pennington won by decision while Pinheiro lost by submission.

GPT
Tecia Pennington by Decision, 65% confidence

Tecia Pennington has a higher striking volume, better defensive efficiency, and has performed better against common opponents. Although Luana Pinheiro has a higher takedown average, Pennington's takedown defense is strong enough to keep the fight standing.