Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Costa presents a more efficient striking profile with better defense (58% vs Erosa's 48%) and a positive strike differential (+1.17) compared to Erosa's negative differential (-0.13). While Erosa has higher volume (6.18 SLPM vs Costa's 3.46), Costa's superior accuracy (46% vs 45%) and significantly better defense should allow him to land the cleaner shots throughout the fight. Both fighters have submission threats, but Costa's recent form shows more consistency with two consecutive submission wins. Erosa's tendency to absorb significant damage (6.31 strikes per minute) creates vulnerability against Costa's calculated approach. Costa's ability to mix striking with timely takedowns (2.5 per fight vs Erosa's 1.69) will likely disrupt Erosa's rhythm and allow Costa to control the pace of the fight.

Based on the statistical analysis, Julian Erosa's higher strike volume and comparable takedown average to Melquizael Costa's could give him the edge. Despite having a slightly lower striking accuracy, Erosa's higher significant strikes per minute (SLPM) suggest he may outscore Costa over the course of the fight. Furthermore, Erosa's takedown defense is higher than Costa's takedown accuracy, indicating he might be able to keep the fight standing where he can utilize his striking advantage.