Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Gordon presents a significant volume advantage (5.75 SLPM vs Moises' 2.39) and superior striking accuracy (55% vs 40%), which should allow him to consistently outpoint Moises on the feet. While Moises has a submission threat (1.3 submissions per fight vs Gordon's 0), Gordon's 62% takedown defense should help neutralize Moises' grappling. Gordon's positive strike differential (+1.78) contrasts sharply with Moises' negative differential (-1.75), indicating Gordon's ability to control striking exchanges. The common opponent analysis favors Moises (who defeated Bobby Green while Gordon lost), but stylistically Gordon's pressure-based approach and volume striking matches up well against Moises' more methodical style. Gordon's cardio and pace should allow him to maintain offensive output throughout the fight, while his defensive wrestling should prevent Moises from implementing his submission game effectively.

Gordon's higher striking volume and takedown defense are likely to give him an edge in this fight. Moises, while having a higher submission average, might struggle to take Gordon down. The common opponent analysis also doesn't favor Moises as he has performed worse against shared opponents.